627 Ventana Dr

Evans, GA 30809

$319,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,987 sqft · Built 2006 · Other · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,323/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax + insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $-58/mo
• Annual: $-696/yr
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.78%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $89,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $320k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-696/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $310k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (27.4% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $232k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#20 in GA, #3,058 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Columbia County (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 174 in GA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Parkway Elementary School (math 78% / reading 70%, grade A, #34 of 1,228 statewide, top 3%, 756 students, 15% FRL); Greenbrier Middle School (math 60% / reading 72%, grade A-, #25 of 470 statewide, top 5%, 845 students, 12% FRL); Greenbrier High School (math 39% / reading 36%, grade F, #65 of 424 statewide, top 16%, 1,801 students, 12% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 516 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,213 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $320k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.7% in Evans — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.