202 Iris Rd

Noel, MO 64854

$99,900C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1978 · Other · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $868/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$182
• Net cashflow: $101/mo
• Annual: $1,213/yr
• Cap rate: 7.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.34%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $27,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $101 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $87k (13.1% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $87k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#596 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mcdonald County R-I (rural): math 34% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #192 of 324 in MO (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Noel Primary (235 students, 83% FRL); Noel Elem. (math 23% / reading 24%, grade F, #328 of 391 statewide, top 84%, 359 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 61% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Mcdonald County R-I average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 20 units permitted in McDonald County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• McDonald County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.