11205 Tumbleweed

Red Rock, OK 74651

$125,000D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $971/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $-96/mo
• Annual: $-1,157/yr
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.31%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-96 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $111k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $97k (22.3% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#406 in OK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Frontier (rural): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #329 of 513 in OK (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Noble County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Noble County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.