11205 Tumbleweed · Red Rock, OK 74651

$125,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 2022

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Built in 2022, this versatile 1,200 sq. ft. metal barndominium/efficiency apartment offers country living just 10 miles north of Perry on approximately 1 acre. Designed for functionality and low-maintenance living, the property features an open-concept living and sleeping area, full bathroom, utility space, and oversized insulated shop/garage area with overhead door — perfect for hobbies, storage, workshop space, or equipment. The property is serviced by rural water District #2 and Kay Electric and also includes a shipping container/storage for additional storage needs. Plenty of room for parking, trailers, recreational equipment, or future expansion while enjoying peaceful rural view

Key facts

• Metal barndominium
• Peaceful rural views
• Wide-open space

Tags

• METAL BARNDOMINIUM
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• OVERSIZED INSULATED SHOP
• SHIPPING CONTAINER STORAGE
• PEACEFUL RURAL VIEWS
• WIDE-OPEN SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Propane utility service; Shared septic system; Other water source
• Home design: Single-family residential property; Single-story residence
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Outbuilding on the property; Gravel road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating available; Propane heating available
• Interior features: Refrigerator included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-96 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $111k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $97k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $97k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#406 in OK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Frontier (rural): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #329 of 513 in OK (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Noble County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Noble County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,141 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.31%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.69% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $483
• Equity at exit: $47,218

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $21,461
• Equity at exit: $66,429

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74651

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $971 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $-96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $111,046

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-10	-5% $-53	+0% $-96	+5% $-140	+10% $-183
Rent	-10% $-173	-5% $-135	+0% $-96	+5% $-58	+10% $-20
Rate	-1.0pp $-33	-0.5pp $-65	base $-96	+0.5pp $-129	+1.0pp $-162

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 693-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,657
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$933
• − Management: −$933
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$3,346
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$803
• After-tax cash flow: $-354/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frontier
• NCES district ID: 4000020
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,315
• Composite: 24.75/100
• National rank: #13027
• State rank: #329 of 513 in OK

Livability — Red Rock

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #20581

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 780

Population outlook (Noble County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,554 people
• By 2030: 11,506 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 11,345 · -1.8%
• By 2050: 11,128 · -3.7%
• By 2075: 10,658 · -7.8%
• By 2100: 9,623 · -16.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.84)
• Race & ethnicity: Native American 42% White 40% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Noble

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.4) · D 20.4% · R 77.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.8pp toward R · 2008: -53.6pp · 2024: -57.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.4 2020: R+57.1 2016: R+57.6 2012: R+50.6 2008: R+53.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.69%
• Current HPI: 176.1576
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $125,000 SBOR