4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,973 sqft ·
Built 1993
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 1 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,045/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,206
Tax + insurance
−$364
HOA
−$43
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$429
Net cashflow
$2/mo
Annual
$27/yr
Cap rate
6.30%
Cash-on-cash
0.04%
DSCR
1.00
1% rule
0.89%
Cash to close
$64,400
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($27/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (11.1% below list).
Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $205k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 83/100 on livability (#10 in NC, #1,028 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
Wake County Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #35 of 178 in NC (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Wilburn Elementary (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,073 of 1,410 statewide, top 77%, 608 students, 86% FRL); East Millbrook Middle (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #416 of 475 statewide, top 89%, 769 students, 73% FRL); Millbrook High (math 56% / reading 68%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 2,421 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 30% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Wake County Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 403 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,249 units permitted in Wake County in 2024 (5,568 in 5+ unit buildings).
Wake County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $179k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.7% in Raleigh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-NWGK1GD3XM9672
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29