17051 Marie Village Dr

Deerwood, TX 77306

$119,900C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 832 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Pending · 185 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,323/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$411
• HOA: −$21
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-15/mo
• Annual: $-184/yr
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.55%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-184/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $117k (2.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.