17051 Marie Village Dr · Deerwood, TX 77306

$119,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 832 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 185 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 5,192 sqft lot $144/sqft · 24% below area Est $158k · 24% under $21/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience comfort and modern living in this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home with bright interiors and ample natural light throughout. The open layout connects the living and dining areas, flowing into a kitchen perfect for gatherings and everyday meals. Outside, enjoy driveway parking and a large backyard that invites outdoor relaxation or future enhancements. Located in the Marie Village community of Conroe, close to everyday conveniences and easy access to nearby roads. Don’t miss the chance to see it—schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• Ample natural light
• Large backyard
• Open layout

Tags

• AMPLE NATURAL LIGHT
• OPEN LAYOUT
• DRIVEWAY PARKING
• LARGE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-184/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $117k (2.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.55%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,990
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -24.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17051 Marie Village Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0	832 (0%)	0mo	$119,900	$144	100
17059 Marie Village Dr	0.01mi	2/1.0	840 (+1%)	2mo	$134,900	$161	92
16647 Colleen Pl	0.08mi	2/1.0	815 (-2%)	12mo	$145,000	$178	79
17026 Marie Village Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	866 (+4%)	14mo	$149,500	$173	75
16791 North Marie Village Pl	0.13mi	2/2.0	813 (-2%)	20mo	$160,557	$197	73
16511 Colleen Pl	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	900 (+8%)	1mo	$169,990	$189	69
17038 Marie Village Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	900 (+8%)	14mo	$183,999	$204	69
16870 Marie Village Dr	0.24mi	2/1.0	855 (+3%)	19mo	$139,000	$163	64
16741 N Marie Village Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	900 (+8%)	21mo	$150,506	$167	55
16771 N Marie Village Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	931 (+12%)	21mo	$164,463	$177	51
16416 Jasmine Marie Pl	0.18mi	2/1.0	940 (+13%)	21mo	$157,774	$168	49
9706 Ruby Stone Way	0.25mi	2/1.0	940 (+13%)	18mo	$169,000	$180	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-20,241
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-18,222
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,323 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$361 /mo · $4,327/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,342

Max offer price $117,196

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $53	-5% $19	+0% $-15	+5% $-49	+10% $-83
Rent	-10% $-120	-5% $-68	+0% $-15	+5% $37	+10% $89
Rate	-1.0pp $45	-0.5pp $15	base $-15	+0.5pp $-46	+1.0pp $-78

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6621 W Forest Rd Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,450	$1.52	44d	1	0.71mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 541-char remark

   Show marketing remark (541 chars)

   Experience comfort and modern living in this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home with bright interiors and ample natural light throughout. The open layout connects the living and dining areas, flowing into a kitchen perfect for gatherings and everyday meals. Outside, enjoy driveway parking and a large backyard that invites outdoor relaxation or future enhancements. Located in the Marie Village community of Conroe, close to everyday conveniences and easy access to nearby roads. Don’t miss the chance to see it—schedule your showing today.

2. 2026-03-27
   price $119,900 541-char remark

   Show marketing remark (541 chars)

   Experience comfort and modern living in this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home with bright interiors and ample natural light throughout. The open layout connects the living and dining areas, flowing into a kitchen perfect for gatherings and everyday meals. Outside, enjoy driveway parking and a large backyard that invites outdoor relaxation or future enhancements. Located in the Marie Village community of Conroe, close to everyday conveniences and easy access to nearby roads. Don’t miss the chance to see it—schedule your showing today.

3. 2026-02-06
   price $134,900 541-char remark

   Show marketing remark (541 chars)

   Experience comfort and modern living in this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home with bright interiors and ample natural light throughout. The open layout connects the living and dining areas, flowing into a kitchen perfect for gatherings and everyday meals. Outside, enjoy driveway parking and a large backyard that invites outdoor relaxation or future enhancements. Located in the Marie Village community of Conroe, close to everyday conveniences and easy access to nearby roads. Don’t miss the chance to see it—schedule your showing today.

4. 2025-12-17
   price $149,900 541-char remark

   Show marketing remark (541 chars)

   Experience comfort and modern living in this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home with bright interiors and ample natural light throughout. The open layout connects the living and dining areas, flowing into a kitchen perfect for gatherings and everyday meals. Outside, enjoy driveway parking and a large backyard that invites outdoor relaxation or future enhancements. Located in the Marie Village community of Conroe, close to everyday conveniences and easy access to nearby roads. Don’t miss the chance to see it—schedule your showing today.

5. 2025-11-03
   listed $160,000 Active 541-char remark

   Show marketing remark (541 chars)

   Experience comfort and modern living in this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home with bright interiors and ample natural light throughout. The open layout connects the living and dining areas, flowing into a kitchen perfect for gatherings and everyday meals. Outside, enjoy driveway parking and a large backyard that invites outdoor relaxation or future enhancements. Located in the Marie Village community of Conroe, close to everyday conveniences and easy access to nearby roads. Don’t miss the chance to see it—schedule your showing today.

6. 2025-02-17
   historical $1,300
7. 2025-02-17
   historical
8. 2025-01-14
   price $1,300
9. 2025-01-13
   price $159,000
10. 2024-10-25
    listed $1,400
11. 2024-08-15
    listed $165,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,327 · $361/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,327 · $361/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,873
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$4,327
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,270
• − Management: −$1,270
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$2,049
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$492
• After-tax cash flow: $308/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in Deerwood, TX is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It is move-in ready with a cosmetic rehab level and no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The highest-ROI updates to increase its value include painting the exterior and interior walls, landscaping and curb appeal improvements, and adding a small front porch or entryway.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both Add a small front porch or entryway — Enhances curb appeal and provides a welcoming entrance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both Add a small front porch or entryway — Enhances curb appeal and provides a welcoming entrance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deerwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-27.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $119,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $134,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2025-11-03 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-17 Rental Removed $1,300 HARMLS
• 2025-02-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-14 Price Changed $1,300 HARMLS
• 2025-01-13 Price Changed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-25 Listed for Rent $1,400 HARMLS
• 2024-08-15 Listed $165,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+45.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,327 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.