3502 Fern River Dr

Houston, TX 77345

$199,900B-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,250 sqft · Built 1989 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,444/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$574
• HOA: −$46
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $262/mo
• Annual: $3,148/yr
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.62%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 1.22%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $262 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $904 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hidden Hollow El (math 46% / reading 53%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 506 students, 35% FRL); Creekwood Middle (math 49% / reading 50%, grade C, #356 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 1,149 students, 21% FRL); Kingwood H S (math 60% / reading 71%, grade B, #193 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 2,898 students, 16% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 41% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Humble ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.