3502 Fern River Dr · Houston, TX 77345

$199,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,250 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1989 8,001 sqft lot Est $299k · 33% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Please call Listing Agent for more information. Investor special. 4 Bedroom, 2 and a half bathroom home located on a cul-de-sac.

Key facts

• 8,001 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1989

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Community association: Sterling ASI; Annual association fee of $550

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (2 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 1989; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Situated on a cul-de-sac lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (20 x 16); Three additional bedrooms on the second floor (13 x 12; 12 x 10; 10 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (gas)
• Interior features: One fireplace; Total of 4 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $262 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hidden Hollow El (math 46% / reading 53%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 506 students, 35% FRL); Creekwood Middle (math 49% / reading 50%, grade C, #356 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 1,149 students, 21% FRL); Kingwood H S (math 60% / reading 71%, grade B, #193 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 2,898 students, 16% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 41% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Humble ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $904 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.62%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $299,250
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3626 Bear Lake Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,052 (-9%)	1mo	$345,000	$168	73
3211 Park Garden Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0	2,233 (-1%)	1mo	$289,999	$130	65
3514 Appalachian Trl	0.55mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,155 (-4%)	1mo	$250,000	$116	61
3747 Clear Falls Dr	0.67mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,251 (0%)	1mo	$240,000	$107	61
3907 Holly Green Ct	0.48mi	4/2.0	2,035 (-10%)	0mo	$269,786	$133	59
3618 Riverwood Park Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,997 (-11%)	1mo	$269,990	$135	58
3215 Park Garden Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,376 (+6%)	2mo	$319,900	$135	58
3215 Falling Brook Dr	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,373 (+6%)	0mo	$289,900	$122	58
3126 Holly Green Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,997 (-11%)	2mo	$260,000	$130	57
3311 Knoll Manor Dr	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,058 (-8%)	2mo	$310,000	$151	55
3823 Wildwood Valley Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,492 (+11%)	2mo	$315,000	$126	47
3131 Beaver Glen Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5	1,968 (-12%)	1mo	$299,900	$152	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $15,363
• Equity at exit: $62,608

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $66,925
• Equity at exit: $79,002

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77345

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,444 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$491 /mo · $5,893/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $262

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,112

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4535 Echo Falls Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2184	$2,145	$0.98	1d	1	0.26mi
3619 Maple Glen Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.0	2332	$2,149	$0.92	16d	1	0.30mi
3334 Birch Creek Dr Kingwood, TX	5.0	3.5	2950	$2,695	$0.91	43d	1	0.39mi
3327 Sycamore Springs Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1619	$1,575	$0.97	18d	1	0.52mi
3327 Sycamore Springs Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1619	$1,683	$1.04	21d	1	0.52mi
3303 Sycamore Springs Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2010	$2,006	$1.00	5d	1	0.55mi
3007 Birch Creek Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1603	$1,795	$1.12	24d	1	0.59mi
3102 Hickory Falls Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	3336	$2,485	$0.74	2d	1	0.90mi
3514 Creek Manor Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2274	$1,995	$0.88	43d	1	0.96mi
3918 Forest Village Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2354	$2,350	$1.00	24d	1	1.06mi
9323 Darby Knoll Way Porter, TX	4.0	2.5	2182	$2,595	$1.19	43d	1	1.10mi
3311 Pleasant Hollow Ln Porter, TX	5.0	3.5	3196	$3,320	$1.04	16d	1	1.11mi
3806 Village Oaks Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2465	$2,300	$0.93	21d	1	1.14mi
5706 Straight Way Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2346	$2,095	$0.89	15d	1	1.18mi
5714 Straight Way Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$1,830	$1.02	19d	1	1.20mi
2934 Apple Forest Ct Kingwood, TX	4.0	3.0	3224	$2,991	$0.93	43d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $199,900 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   remarks 128-char remark
3. 2026-06-04
   listed $199,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,893 · $491/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,893 · $491/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,332
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$5,893
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,347
• − Management: −$2,347
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $181
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$44
• After-tax cash flow: $3,104/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,917
• Household income: $150,742
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.45%
• Current HPI: 210.6244
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-15 Price Changed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-24 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $262,500 HARMLS
• 2025-11-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $274,995 HARMLS
• 2025-10-19 Price Changed $284,995 HARMLS
• 2025-10-08 Listed $289,995 HARMLS
• 2025-09-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $249,990 HARMLS
• 2025-09-02 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2007-01-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-07-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,893 · -13.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.