430 E Oak St

Stockton, CA 95202

$800,000A-

12 bd · 12.0 ba · 6,552 sqft · Built 1913 · MultiFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $13,865/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,195
• Tax + insurance: −$1,004
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,912
• Net cashflow: $5,754/mo
• Annual: $69,050/yr
• Cap rate: 14.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.83%
• DSCR: 2.37
• 1% rule: 1.73%
• Cash to close: $224,000

Investor read

• This is a 12 × 1-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $800k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($69k/yr) — positive. Per door: $480/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($14k rent vs $800k).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Stockton Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #295 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mckinley Elementary (757 students, 84% FRL); Stagg Senior High (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #950 of 1,170 statewide, top 82%, 1,773 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 78% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 34% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Stockton Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1913 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $630k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $224k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1913 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.