430 E Oak St · Stockton, CA 95202

$800,000

12 bd · 12.0 ba · 6,552 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1913 5,001 sqft lot Est $1343k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 12 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

Welcome to this prime investment opportunity featuring a well-maintained 12 unit apartment complex, strategically located near major freeways and bustling shopping center. This property boasts a solid rental history with low vacancy rates, making it an attractive investment for generating steady cash flow. ALL UNITS ARE A 1 BED 1 BATH.

Key facts

• Solid rental history
• Low vacancy rates
• 5,001 sq ft lot

Tags

• 12 UNIT APARTMENT COMPLEX
• SOLID RENTAL HISTORY
• LOW VACANCY RATES
• STRATEGICALLY LOCATED
• BUSTLING SHOPPING CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 12 × 1-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $800k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($69k/yr) — positive. Per door: $480/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($14k rent vs $800k).
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Stockton Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #295 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mckinley Elementary (757 students, 84% FRL); Stagg Senior High (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #950 of 1,170 statewide, top 82%, 1,773 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 78% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 34% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Stockton Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $224k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $630k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1913 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $800,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1913 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.83%
• DSCR: 2.37
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,343,160
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
721 N Commerce St	0.44mi	12/1.0	5,589 (-15%)	17mo	$1,146,000	$205	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.7% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $369,935
• Equity at exit: $260,855

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.15×
• Total profit: $930,293
• Equity at exit: $337,368

Cash invested: $224,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95202

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 57.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $13,865 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,195
• Tax from tax record: −$671 /mo · $8,047/yr
• Insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,912
• Net cashflow: $5,754

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,581

Max offer price $800,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $6,207	-5% $5,981	+0% $5,754	+5% $5,528	+10% $5,301
Rent	-10% $4,659	-5% $5,206	+0% $5,754	+5% $6,302	+10% $6,849
Rate	-1.0pp $6,157	-0.5pp $5,958	base $5,754	+0.5pp $5,547	+1.0pp $5,336

12-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 12× units	1	1	$13,860
Total (12 units)			$13,865

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $200,000
• Closing costs: $24,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2024-04-29
   soldstatus $630,000
2. 2023-09-29
   soldstatus $3,785,000
3. 1999-05-06
   soldstatus $50,000
4. 1988-07-01
   soldstatus $172,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,047 · $671/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,047 · $671/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $166,380
• − Mortgage interest: −$44,812
• − Property taxes: −$8,047
• − Insurance: −$4,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$13,310
• − Management: −$13,310
• − Depreciation: −$23,273
• Taxable income: $59,627
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$14,310
• After-tax cash flow: $54,739/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockton Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638010
• Math proficiency: 23% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $37,563
• Composite: 28.65/100
• National rank: #6701
• State rank: #295 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 7,066
• Household income: $31,020
• Rent vs Own: 91.1% rent · 8.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 837.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% Black 23% Two or more races 21% White 14% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Danish 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• Current HPI: 315.9916
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+266.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2024-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $630,000 Public Records
• 2023-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $3,785,000 Public Records
• 1999-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1988-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $172,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,047 · -43.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.