3138 Caney Fork Rd

Martin, KY 41649

$89,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,054 sqft · Built 1946 · SingleFamily · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,239/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax + insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $369/mo
• Annual: $4,433/yr
• Cap rate: 12.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.46%
• DSCR: 1.91
• 1% rule: 1.39%
• Cash to close: $24,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $369 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#239 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Floyd County (rural): math 13% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #157 of 165 in KY (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Floyd Central High School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #158 of 254 statewide, top 68%, 552 students, 72% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Floyd County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Floyd County population projected at -36% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $89k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.