3138 Caney Fork Rd · Martin, KY 41649

$89,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,054 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1946 30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRIVACY, ACREAGE, HUNTING - Semi private location with approx. 30 acres. ATV trails to ride and hunt deer & turkey. Original hardwood flooring in home. Living area, family room with fireplace (gas insert), office area, utility room and kitchen. Home has 2 bedrooms with possible 3 bedrooms. Many recent updates including roof, some cabinetry and much more!

Key facts

• Excellent hunting
• Office area
• Atv trails

Tags

• 30 ACRES OF LAND
• ATV TRAILS
• EXCELLENT HUNTING
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• GAS FIREPLACE INSERT
• OFFICE AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Garden

Interior

• Flooring: Laminate
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating
• Interior features: Laminate flooring; Six total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $369 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#239 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Floyd County (rural): math 13% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #157 of 165 in KY (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Floyd Central High School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #158 of 254 statewide, top 68%, 552 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Floyd County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Floyd County population projected at -36% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $89k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.46%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $9,121
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $38,300
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41649

• Home prices YoY: -4.4%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,239 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $604/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $772

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $420	-5% $395	+0% $369	+5% $344	+10% $319
Rent	-10% $271	-5% $320	+0% $369	+5% $418	+10% $467
Rate	-1.0pp $414	-0.5pp $392	base $369	+0.5pp $346	+1.0pp $323

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 318-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $89,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $604 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $765 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: +$162/yr (+$13/mo · 26.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,872
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$604
• − Insurance: −$1,112
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,190
• − Management: −$1,190
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $3,203
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$769
• After-tax cash flow: $3,664/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Floyd County
• NCES district ID: 2101950
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -25.00%
• Median HH income: $29,638
• Composite: 17.97/100
• National rank: #8988
• State rank: #157 of 165 in KY

Livability — Martin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #239
• US rank: #11714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,275

Population outlook (Floyd County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,016 people
• By 2030: 30,683 · -7.1%
• By 2040: 25,378 · -23.1%
• By 2050: 21,013 · -36.4%
• By 2075: 14,361 · -56.5%
• By 2100: 10,464 · -68.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Italian 2% Slovak 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Floyd

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.2) · D 19.6% · R 78.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -57.9pp toward R · 2008: -1.3pp · 2024: -59.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.2 2020: R+51.2 2016: R+48.3 2012: R+33.9 2008: R+1.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.46%
• Current HPI: 97.3283
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+78.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $89,000 EKAR
• 2020-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $49,900 Public Records
• 2020-03-17 Sold (MLS) $49,900 EKAR
• 2019-05-15 Listed $49,900 EKAR
• 2017-11-17 Sold (MLS) $47,000 EKAR
• 2017-10-30 Listed $50,000 EKAR

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $604 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.