6454 Faulkner Dr

Meadowbrook, VA 23234

$422,000D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,382 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Active · 76 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,761/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,213
• Tax + insurance: −$479
• HOA: −$60
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$580
• Net cashflow: $-571/mo
• Annual: $-6,853/yr
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.80%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $118,160

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $422k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-571 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $321k (23.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (34.6% below list).
• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($397k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $276k (34.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#161 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hopkins Road Elementary (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #900 of 1,108 statewide, top 83%, 773 students, 81% FRL); Falling Creek Middle (math 28% / reading 46%, grade F, #319 of 342 statewide, top 93%, 1,419 students, 80% FRL); Lloyd C. Bird High (math 40% / reading 73%, grade C, #270 of 319 statewide, top 86%, 2,031 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 26% district-wide (54 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Chesterfield County Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 234 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $43k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.9% in Meadowbrook — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• At $2,761/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 2031% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.