141 Turkey Dr

Harper, TX 78631

$250,000D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Active · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,832/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$275
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-138/mo
• Annual: $-1,657/yr
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.37%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-138 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (26.7% below list).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $183k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-76 appreciation (-0.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#849 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Harper ISD (rural): math 51% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #133 of 826 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Harper El (math 67% / reading 52%, grade B-, #409 of 4,322 statewide, top 10%, 217 students, 43% FRL); Harper H S (math 34% / reading 54%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 188 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 224 active listings in the ZIP; 52 units permitted in Gillespie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gillespie County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $250k implies a 367% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 1.3% in Harper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.