141 Turkey Dr · Harper, TX 78631

$250,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1985 0.49 ac lot $223/sqft · at area comps Est $245k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location, location! HARPER, TX. Traditional style 3 bedroom, 1 bath home with an attached garage. Great, quiet neighborhood. Brick home on . 48 AC with 1 car attached garage. Central Public Water System. Country neighborhood of similar brick homes. A short drive to Fredericksburg, Kerrville and less than 1 mile to Harper. Level property, great area for children to play. Windows are plentiful and offer bright interior. HVAC new in 2019. HARPER IS RECOGNIZED FOR THE EXCELLENCE IN THE INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICT. PROPERTY IS OFFERED AS IS.

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Storage shed
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• STORAGE SHED
• OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Down payment assistance not indicated
• HOA & community: No subdivision (NONE)

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Water supplied by Aqua; Water system and septic; Electricity supplied by Central Texa
• Home design: Pre-owned single-family property; Approximately 41 years old
• Construction: Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Brick and siding exterior with 3-sided masonry; Street paved with asphalt

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level (12 x 13); Bedroom 2 (9 x 9); Bedroom 3 (12 x 10); All bedrooms downstairs
• Flooring: Linoleum flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Chandelier; Eat-in kitchen; Utility room inside; Cable TV available; High-speed internet; Some window coverings remain; Attic access only
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Washer and dryer connections; Utility room (8 x 5); Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-138 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (26.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 1.3% in Harper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#849 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Harper ISD (rural): math 51% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #133 of 826 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Harper El (math 67% / reading 52%, grade B-, #409 of 4,322 statewide, top 10%, 217 students, 43% FRL); Harper H S (math 34% / reading 54%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 188 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 224 active listings in the ZIP; 52 units permitted in Gillespie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-76 appreciation (-0.0% local appreciation)).
• Gillespie County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $250k implies a 367% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,242 (26.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.37%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,893
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: 2.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
123 Turkey Dr	0.02mi	3/1.0	1,120 (0%)	10mo	$274,000	$245	91

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.03% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-16,524
• Equity at exit: $72,214

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $6,441
• Equity at exit: $86,503

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78631

• Home prices YoY: -0.0%
• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,832 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,046/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,007

Max offer price $225,606

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $250,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $250,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $250,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $250,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $250,000 Active 15 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    listed $250,000 New 617-char remark
18. 2022-05-17
    soldstatus
19. 2022-05-13
    soldstatus Closed 190-char remark

    Show marketing remark (190 chars)

    Great, children friendly neighborhood in Harper. This well taken care of home awaits a new family to enjoy! Three bedrooms and one bath with an attached garage. HVAC new in 2019. HARPER ISD

20. 2022-05-13
    soldstatus Closed

    Show marketing remark (190 chars)

    Great, children friendly neighborhood in Harper. This well taken care of home awaits a new family to enjoy! Three bedrooms and one bath with an attached garage. HVAC new in 2019. HARPER ISD

21. 2022-05-06
    listed Active Under Contract 190-char remark

    Show marketing remark (190 chars)

    Great, children friendly neighborhood in Harper. This well taken care of home awaits a new family to enjoy! Three bedrooms and one bath with an attached garage. HVAC new in 2019. HARPER ISD

22. 2022-03-17
    listed $219,000 190-char remark

    Show marketing remark (190 chars)

    Great, children friendly neighborhood in Harper. This well taken care of home awaits a new family to enjoy! Three bedrooms and one bath with an attached garage. HVAC new in 2019. HARPER ISD

23. 2022-03-15
    listed $219,000

    Show marketing remark (542 chars)

    Location, location! HARPER, TX. Traditional style 3 bedroom, 1 bath home with an attached garage. Great, quiet neighborhood. Brick home on . 48 AC with 1 car attached garage. Central Public Water System. Country neighborhood of similar brick homes. A short drive to Fredericksburg, Kerrville and less than 1 mile to Harper. Level property, great area for children to play. Windows are plentiful and offer bright interior. HVAC new in 2019. HARPER IS RECOGNIZED FOR THE EXCELLENCE IN THE INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICT. PROPERTY IS OFFERED AS IS.

24. 2001-07-16
    soldstatus $53,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,046 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,575 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,529/yr (+$211/mo · 123.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,989
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,046
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,759
• − Management: −$1,759
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$6,102
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,464
• After-tax cash flow: $-193/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822590
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,723
• Composite: 45.33/100
• National rank: #2643
• State rank: #133 of 826 in TX

Livability — Harper

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #849
• US rank: #15317

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harper, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,357

Population outlook (Gillespie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,213 people
• By 2030: 29,243 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 31,133 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 32,854 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 37,597 · +33.3%
• By 2100: 39,369 · +39.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gillespie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: -56.6pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+58.9 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+56.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ -0.03%
• Current HPI: 225.8858
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+367.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $250,000 LERA
• 2022-05-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-13 Sold (MLS) — CHCMLS
• 2022-05-13 Sold (MLS) — KVMLS
• 2022-05-06 Listed — CHCMLS
• 2022-03-17 Listed $219,000 CHCMLS
• 2022-03-15 Listed $219,000 KVMLS
• 2001-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $53,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,046 · -4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.