30972 Falling Rock Ave

Bent Tree Harbor, MO 65355

$30,000B+

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 980 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 140 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,203/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$20
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $723/mo
• Annual: $8,676/yr
• Cap rate: 35.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 103.29%
• DSCR: 5.60
• 1% rule: 4.01%
• Cash to close: $8,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $30k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $723 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($207 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Warsaw R-IX (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #222 of 324 in MO (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 274 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Benton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (65%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 35.2% vs local median 3.7% in Bent Tree Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.