30972 Falling Rock Ave · Bent Tree Harbor, MO 65355

$30,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 980 sqft · SingleFamily · 138 Days on market

Good condition 2.87 ac lot $31/sqft · 82% below area $20/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 29% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked on 2.87 wooded acres, 30972 Falling Rock Ave in Warsaw delivers that peaceful “getaway” feel with a beautiful valley view. Even better, a public boat ramp is within 5 minutes—giving convenient access to Truman Lake for fishing, cruising, and weekend fun. This 1-story manufactured home offers 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, and 980 sq ft, with 2021 updates including newer flooring and a refreshed full bath. Cozy up by the wood-burning fireplace, and enjoy year-round comfort with central air and an electric heat pump plus propane. Relax on the covered, screened deck, then take advantage of the detached 2-car metal carport (enclosed on one end) and storage shed. Shared well, septic, and room to roam, garden, or build.

Key facts

• Detached carport
• Wooded acres
• Storage shed

Tags

• WOODED ACRES
• VALLEY VIEW
• PUBLIC BOAT RAMP
• DETACHED CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED
• COVERED SCREENED DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $30k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $723 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 35.2% vs local median 4.2% in Bent Tree Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Warsaw R-IX (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #222 of 324 in MO (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 259 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($207 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (65%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $26,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 35.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 103.29%
• DSCR: 5.60
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $163,239
• List price: $30,000
• Delta: -81.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.40×
• Total profit: $53,773
• Equity at exit: $17,827

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.58×
• Total profit: $122,462
• Equity at exit: $31,474

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65355

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,203 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$38 /mo · $450/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $723

Break-even live

Break-even rent $288

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $30,000 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $30,000 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $30,000 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $30,000 Active 135 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $30,000 Active 133 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $60,000 Active 132 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,000 Active 128 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $60,000 Active 127 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $60,000 Active 126 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $60,000 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 122 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 121 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 120 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 119 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    status Active 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Tucked on 2.87 wooded acres, 30972 Falling Rock Ave in Warsaw delivers that peaceful “getaway” feel with a beautiful valley view. Even better, a public boat ramp is within 5 minutes—giving convenient access to Truman Lake for fishing, cruising, and weekend fun. This 1-story manufactured home offers 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, and 980 sq ft, with 2021 updates including newer flooring and a refreshed full bath. Cozy up by the wood-burning fireplace, and enjoy year-round comfort with central air and an electric heat pump plus propane. Relax on the covered, screened deck, then take advantage of the detached 2-car metal carport (enclosed on one end) and storage shed. Shared well, septic, and room to roam, garden, or build.

17. 2026-04-28
    historical Active Under Contract 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Tucked on 2.87 wooded acres, 30972 Falling Rock Ave in Warsaw delivers that peaceful “getaway” feel with a beautiful valley view. Even better, a public boat ramp is within 5 minutes—giving convenient access to Truman Lake for fishing, cruising, and weekend fun. This 1-story manufactured home offers 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, and 980 sq ft, with 2021 updates including newer flooring and a refreshed full bath. Cozy up by the wood-burning fireplace, and enjoy year-round comfort with central air and an electric heat pump plus propane. Relax on the covered, screened deck, then take advantage of the detached 2-car metal carport (enclosed on one end) and storage shed. Shared well, septic, and room to roam, garden, or build.

18. 2026-04-20
    price $60,000 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Tucked on 2.87 wooded acres, 30972 Falling Rock Ave in Warsaw delivers that peaceful “getaway” feel with a beautiful valley view. Even better, a public boat ramp is within 5 minutes—giving convenient access to Truman Lake for fishing, cruising, and weekend fun. This 1-story manufactured home offers 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, and 980 sq ft, with 2021 updates including newer flooring and a refreshed full bath. Cozy up by the wood-burning fireplace, and enjoy year-round comfort with central air and an electric heat pump plus propane. Relax on the covered, screened deck, then take advantage of the detached 2-car metal carport (enclosed on one end) and storage shed. Shared well, septic, and room to roam, garden, or build.

19. 2026-04-17
    status Active 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Tucked on 2.87 wooded acres, 30972 Falling Rock Ave in Warsaw delivers that peaceful “getaway” feel with a beautiful valley view. Even better, a public boat ramp is within 5 minutes—giving convenient access to Truman Lake for fishing, cruising, and weekend fun. This 1-story manufactured home offers 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, and 980 sq ft, with 2021 updates including newer flooring and a refreshed full bath. Cozy up by the wood-burning fireplace, and enjoy year-round comfort with central air and an electric heat pump plus propane. Relax on the covered, screened deck, then take advantage of the detached 2-car metal carport (enclosed on one end) and storage shed. Shared well, septic, and room to roam, garden, or build.

20. 2026-03-05
    historical Active Under Contract 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Tucked on 2.87 wooded acres, 30972 Falling Rock Ave in Warsaw delivers that peaceful “getaway” feel with a beautiful valley view. Even better, a public boat ramp is within 5 minutes—giving convenient access to Truman Lake for fishing, cruising, and weekend fun. This 1-story manufactured home offers 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, and 980 sq ft, with 2021 updates including newer flooring and a refreshed full bath. Cozy up by the wood-burning fireplace, and enjoy year-round comfort with central air and an electric heat pump plus propane. Relax on the covered, screened deck, then take advantage of the detached 2-car metal carport (enclosed on one end) and storage shed. Shared well, septic, and room to roam, garden, or build.

21. 2026-02-01
    listed $85,000 Active 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Tucked on 2.87 wooded acres, 30972 Falling Rock Ave in Warsaw delivers that peaceful “getaway” feel with a beautiful valley view. Even better, a public boat ramp is within 5 minutes—giving convenient access to Truman Lake for fishing, cruising, and weekend fun. This 1-story manufactured home offers 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, and 980 sq ft, with 2021 updates including newer flooring and a refreshed full bath. Cozy up by the wood-burning fireplace, and enjoy year-round comfort with central air and an electric heat pump plus propane. Relax on the covered, screened deck, then take advantage of the detached 2-car metal carport (enclosed on one end) and storage shed. Shared well, septic, and room to roam, garden, or build.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,436
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$450
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,155
• − Management: −$1,155
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $8,733
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,096
• After-tax cash flow: $6,581/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home offers a good condition with recent updates and a peaceful setting. It's ready for a new owner to move in and enjoy the serene surroundings.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both Replace wooden fence — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both Replace wooden fence — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warsaw R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2931070
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,160
• Composite: 29.53/100
• National rank: #6495
• State rank: #222 of 324 in MO

Livability — Bent Tree Harbor

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,029

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,355 people
• By 2030: 16,513 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 14,898 · -14.2%
• By 2050: 13,662 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 11,308 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 8,755 · -49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.1) · D 20.1% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -22.3pp · 2024: -59.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.1 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+54.1 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+22.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Current HPI: 232.6924
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-29.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Relisted — LOBR
• 2026-04-28 Contingent — LOBR
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $60,000 LOBR
• 2026-04-17 Relisted — LOBR
• 2026-03-05 Contingent — LOBR
• 2026-02-01 Listed $85,000 LOBR