5068 Captain Davis Dr

Wimauma, FL 33598

$255,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,695 sqft · Built 2023 · Townhouse · Active · 117 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,307/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax + insurance: −$1,107
• HOA: −$257
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-879/mo
• Annual: $-10,552/yr
• Cap rate: 4.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.61%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $71,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-879 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (45.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (9.5% below list).
• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $138k (45.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#699 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A, cost of living A-, crime B; Watch: amenities F, employment D-, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Reddick Elementary School (math 34% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,841 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 794 students, 78% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 858 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 71d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 9344% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?