83 Chestnut St

Mifflinburg, PA 17844

$140,000D+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,838 sqft · Built 1900 · Other · Active · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,334/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $127/mo
• Annual: $1,527/yr
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.90%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $39,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (4.7% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $133k (4.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#755 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Mifflinburg Area SD (town): math 41% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #163 of 539 in PA (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mifflinburg Area Intrmd Sch (math 45% / reading 64%, grade C, #504 of 1,518 statewide, top 37%, 393 students, 53% FRL); Mifflinburg Area Ms (math 30% / reading 60%, grade D, #187 of 512 statewide, top 38%, 402 students, 50% FRL); Mifflinburg Area Shs (math 57% / reading 24%, grade F, #255 of 437 statewide, top 60%, 493 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 29% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Union County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $140k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.7% in Mifflinburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.