83 Chestnut St · Mifflinburg, PA 17844

$140,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,838 sqft · Other public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1900 6,969 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Make yourself at home in this 2 Story House with an Oversized 750 Square Foot 2 Stall Detached Garage/Barn with Full Loft located in the heart of Historic Mifflinburg. Enjoy the amenities of having shopping, dining and schools all within walking distance. This 1,838 square foot home has 3 bedrooms, but could easily be converted into a 2 bedroom home with a 2 Room Master Suite with private access to the 19'6 x 6'5 2nd Floor Porch that overlooks the backyard. Enjoy entertaining with the larger rear deck and beautifully landscaped backyard in addition to ample off-street parking and a wrap-around enclosed porch off of the kitchen. Need to work from home or a quiet place to study? Enjoy the 2nd floor office room. Home also has hardwood flooring throughout most of the house. Contact listing agent John Foreman at 814-574-1335 or [email protected] for additional information or to scheduled a showing and see everything this home has to offer.

Key facts

• Complete renovation
• Above ground pool
• Heart of mifflinburg

Tags

• COMPLETE RENOVATION
• ABOVE GROUND POOL
• LARGE BARN
• FENCED IN BACK YARD
• HEART OF MIFFLINBURG

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: From Lewisburg Route 45 West to 83 Chestnut Street; parking available in the alley (High Street) behind the home
• HOA & community: Sidewalks in the community

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Res/Urban zoning
• Construction: Vinyl siding, frame, and stone construction; Metal roof; No foundation specified; Built area above grade: 1,838
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Above-ground pool; Barn(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Hardwood flooring; 11 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $133k (4.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.7% in Mifflinburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#755 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Mifflinburg Area SD (town): math 41% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #163 of 539 in PA (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mifflinburg Area Intrmd Sch (math 45% / reading 64%, grade C, #504 of 1,518 statewide, top 37%, 393 students, 53% FRL); Mifflinburg Area Ms (math 30% / reading 60%, grade D, #187 of 512 statewide, top 38%, 402 students, 50% FRL); Mifflinburg Area Shs (math 57% / reading 24%, grade F, #255 of 437 statewide, top 60%, 493 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 29% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Union County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $140k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,355 (4.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.90%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-14,586
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,286
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17844

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,334 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,605/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,172

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $207	-5% $167	+0% $127	+5% $88	+10% $48
Rent	-10% $22	-5% $75	+0% $127	+5% $180	+10% $233
Rate	-1.0pp $198	-0.5pp $163	base $127	+0.5pp $91	+1.0pp $54

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-22
   pricedays on market $140,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $150,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   remarks 366-char remark
10. 2026-06-09
    listed $150,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,605 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,908 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: +$304/yr (+$25/mo · 18.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,003
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,605
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,280
• − Management: −$1,280
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$778
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$187
• After-tax cash flow: $1,714/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mifflinburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4226010
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $47,753
• Composite: 43.73/100
• National rank: #2949
• State rank: #163 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mifflinburg

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #755
• US rank: #7547

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mifflinburg, PA
• Population (ZIP): 10,374

Population outlook (Union County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,664 people
• By 2030: 47,704 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 48,798 · +4.6%
• By 2050: 49,048 · +5.1%
• By 2075: 47,491 · +1.8%
• By 2100: 41,817 · -10.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Polish 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · German/W. Germanic 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Union

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.4) · D 37.8% · R 61.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.4 2020: R+24.3 2016: R+25.7 2012: R+23.5 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.70%
• Current HPI: 189.7833
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+37.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $150,000 CSVBR
• 2015-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 2015-07-30 Sold (MLS) $63,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-05-28 Listed $70,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $109,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,605 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.