3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,092 sqft ·
Built 1953
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 2 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,335/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,463
Tax + insurance
−$284
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$280
Net cashflow
$-693/mo
Annual
$-8,312/yr
Cap rate
3.31%
Cash-on-cash
-10.64%
DSCR
0.53
1% rule
0.48%
Cash to close
$78,120
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-693 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (43.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (52.2% below list).
Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $134k (52.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#365 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime F.
South Bend Community School Corporation (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #284 of 301 in IN (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Kennedy Academy (math 45% / reading 52%, grade D, #304 of 994 statewide, top 31%, 520 students, 61% FRL); Edison Middle School (math 7% / reading 13%, grade F, #314 of 330 statewide, top 95%, 381 students, 84% FRL); Adams High School (math 28% / reading 57%, grade F, #195 of 369 statewide, top 53%, 1,976 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 67% FRL track the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 16% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the South Bend Community School Corporation average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 76 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 754 units permitted in St. Joseph County in 2024 (460 in 5+ unit buildings).
4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $220k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 4.3% in South Bend — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29