96 Pelham Loop Rd

Danville, VA 27311

$125,000C-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Built 1973 · Other · Active · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,078/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $105/mo
• Annual: $1,260/yr
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.60%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $105 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (13.7% below list).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#91 in VA, #2,952 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, crime D-, commute F.
• Caswell County Schools (rural): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #146 of 178 in NC (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: North Elementary (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #694 of 1,410 statewide, top 53%, 343 students, 99% FRL); N L Dillard Middle (math 21% / reading 35%, grade F, #360 of 475 statewide, top 77%, 500 students, 71% FRL); Bartlett Yancey High (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #393 of 535 statewide, top 75%, 679 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 61% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Caswell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caswell County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 5.2% in Danville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.