1617 Blair Ave

St. Paul, MN 55104

$359,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,080 sqft · Built 1924 · MultiFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,461/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,883
• Tax + insurance: −$681
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$727
• Net cashflow: $170/mo
• Annual: $2,046/yr
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.04%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $100,520

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $359k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive. Per door: $85/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $346k (3.6% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($354k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $346k (3.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hamline Elementary School (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #755 of 857 statewide, top 88%, 303 students, 84% FRL); Murray Middle School (math 19% / reading 40%, grade F, #204 of 258 statewide, top 80%, 538 students, 64% FRL); Como Park Senior High (math 8% / reading 42%, grade F, #375 of 471 statewide, top 81%, 1,078 students, 75% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 190 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $359k implies a 349% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At $3,461/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 2116% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.