1617 Blair Ave · St. Paul, MN 55104

$359,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,080 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1924 6,141 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Nice 2 Story Stucco Duplex. Features: Large 2 BR and 1 BA each unit, Large porch. Beautiful builtins and Woodwork, Hardwood floors and off street parking. Near Hamline University, Lite Rail, shopping, schools, Hamline and Newell Parks.

Key facts

• Spacious kitchens
• Two story duplex
• High ceilings

Tags

• TWO STORY DUPLEX
• SPACIOUS KITCHENS
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• HIGH CEILINGS
• BEAUTIFUL WOOD TRIM
• NEW ELECTRICAL PANEL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $359k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive. Per door: $85/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $346k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $346k (3.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hamline Elementary School (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #755 of 857 statewide, top 88%, 303 students, 84% FRL); Murray Middle School (math 19% / reading 40%, grade F, #204 of 258 statewide, top 80%, 538 students, 64% FRL); Como Park Senior High (math 8% / reading 42%, grade F, #375 of 471 statewide, top 81%, 1,078 students, 75% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 190 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,461/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 2116% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($354k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $359k implies a 349% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $346,100 (3.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.04%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-48,946
• Equity at exit: $53,528

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-35,260
• Equity at exit: $31,040

Cash invested: $100,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55104

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 17.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,461 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,883
• Tax from tax record: −$532 /mo · $6,378/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$727
• Net cashflow: $170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,245

Max offer price $359,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $374	-5% $272	+0% $170	+5% $69	+10% $-33
Rent	-10% $-103	-5% $34	+0% $170	+5% $307	+10% $444
Rate	-1.0pp $351	-0.5pp $262	base $170	+0.5pp $77	+1.0pp $-17

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$3,460
Total (2 units)			$3,461

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,750
• Closing costs: $10,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1555 Selby Ave Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.5	1506	$6,444	$4.28	0d	8	0.98mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-11
   historical Contingent - Inspection
3. 2026-03-31
   listed $359,000 Active
4. 2012-10-05
   soldstatus $80,000 235-char remark

   Show marketing remark (235 chars)

   Nice 2 Story Stucco Duplex. Features: Large 2 BR and 1 BA each unit, Large porch. Beautiful builtins and Woodwork, Hardwood floors and off street parking. Near Hamline University, Lite Rail, shopping, schools, Hamline and Newell Parks.

5. 2012-08-16
   historical 235-char remark

   Show marketing remark (235 chars)

   Nice 2 Story Stucco Duplex. Features: Large 2 BR and 1 BA each unit, Large porch. Beautiful builtins and Woodwork, Hardwood floors and off street parking. Near Hamline University, Lite Rail, shopping, schools, Hamline and Newell Parks.

6. 2012-08-01
   listed $80,000 235-char remark

   Show marketing remark (235 chars)

   Nice 2 Story Stucco Duplex. Features: Large 2 BR and 1 BA each unit, Large porch. Beautiful builtins and Woodwork, Hardwood floors and off street parking. Near Hamline University, Lite Rail, shopping, schools, Hamline and Newell Parks.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,378 · $532/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,378 · $532/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,532
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,110
• − Property taxes: −$6,378
• − Insurance: −$1,795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,323
• − Management: −$3,323
• − Depreciation: −$10,444
• Taxable loss: −$3,839
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$921
• After-tax cash flow: $2,967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 45,762
• Household income: $75,712
• Rent vs Own: 46.9% rent · 53.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2116.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -532.26%
• Current HPI: 245.6146
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+348.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-11 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listed $359,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-05 Sold (MLS) $80,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-16 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-01 Listed $80,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,378 · +15.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.