6101 E Sienna Bouquet Pl

Phoenix, AZ 85331

$1,050,000D

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,036 sqft · Built 2014 · SingleFamily · Pending · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,994/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,506
• Tax + insurance: −$696
• HOA: −$136
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,469
• Net cashflow: $-813/mo
• Annual: $-9,757/yr
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.32%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $294,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $1.05M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-813 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $906k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $699k (33.4% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.02M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $699k (33.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $32k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lone Mountain Elementary School (math 63% / reading 65%, grade B, #115 of 1,109 statewide, top 11%, 423 students, 8% FRL); Sonoran Trails Middle School (math 48% / reading 50%, grade C-, #31 of 218 statewide, top 14%, 761 students, 7% FRL); Cactus Shadows High School (math 49% / reading 46%, grade D, #48 of 381 statewide, top 13%, 1,588 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools at 7% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 396 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,994/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($129k/yr) (locally 169% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.