772 Wildberry Cir

Avon Lake, OH 44012

$315,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,874 sqft · Built 2005 · Townhouse · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,592/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$578
• HOA: −$300
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $-482/mo
• Annual: $-5,788/yr
• Cap rate: 4.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.56%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-482 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (27.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (17.7% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $230k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#52 in OH, #736 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F.
• Avon Lake City (suburban): math 78% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #48 of 656 in OH (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 178 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,098 units permitted in Lorain County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 9 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $315k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.2% in Avon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.