2040 Tarpon Bay Dr N #201

Island Walk, FL 34119

$495,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,170 sqft · Built 2004 · Condo · Active · 102 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,722/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax + insurance: −$576
• HOA: −$948
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,202
• Net cashflow: $401/mo
• Annual: $4,809/yr
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.47%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $138,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $495k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $401 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $495k).
• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($450k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $450k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#692 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Vineyards Elementary School (math 79% / reading 75%, grade A, #170 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 845 students, 27% FRL); North Naples Middle School (math 79% / reading 73%, grade A, #34 of 571 statewide, top 6%, 903 students, 25% FRL); Gulf Coast High School (math 57% / reading 68%, grade B-, #93 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,447 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 24% FRL vs 55% district-wide (31 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 72% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 590 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $5,722/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($113k/yr) (locally 741% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.