2040 Tarpon Bay Dr N #201 · Island Walk, FL 34119

$495,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,170 sqft · Condo public records · 102 Days on market

Built 2004 $948/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged, AI generated or rendered. This Bimini Bay lll Coach Home is in Excellent Condition and Move-In Ready. This bright and spacious home offers many upgrades and boasts the largest floor plan in Tarpon Bay with 3 Bedrooms + Den, 2 full bathrooms, a wraparound lanai and a 2-car garage with IMPACT GLASS WINDOWS AND SLIDERS and located in close proximity to the clubhouse and amenities. VERY LUSH, TROPICAL LANDSCAPING throughout the community. This home has an abundance of upgrades such as a recently updated kitchen offering contemporary style cabinets, quartz countertops, large under mount single bowl stainless steel sink, Kinetico water system at kit

Key facts

• Impact glass windows
• Natural gas range
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• WRAPAROUND LANAI
• IMPACT GLASS WINDOWS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NATURAL GAS RANGE
• PORCELAIN TILE FLOORING
• MOTORIZED SHADES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total annual recurring HOA-related fees: $11,376; Total one-time fees: $150
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (professional management); Master association fee and condo fee collected quarterly; Master HOA includes cable, insurance, internet/WiFi, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, pest control (interior & exterior), sewer, street maintenance, street lights, recreation facilities, reserves, manager, legal/accounting; Community amenities: clubhouse, community pool and spa, exercise room, tennis and pickleball courts, basketball, bike/jog path, sidewalks, streetlights, lakefront beach, fishing pier, library, business center, billiards, play area, BBQ/picnic, underground utilities

Exterior

• Parking: Common parking and paved driveway; Attached 2-car garage with automatic garage door
• Security: Gated community; Unmonitored alarm system; Security system present; Impact resistant windows
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Natural gas available; Cable available
• Home design: Residential carriage/coach unit in a low-rise building (1–3 stories); Two-story, split bedroom floor plan; Rear exposure facing east; Located in the gated Tarpon Bay community (Bimini Bay sub-condo)
• Construction: Built in 2004; Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Tile roof; Impact resistant windows
• Exterior features: Automatic sprinkler system (reclaimed water); Screened lanai/porch; Glass porch; Landscaped area and preserve views; Zero lot line

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas available; Walk-in pantry; Gas cooktop; Self-cleaning oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator/ice maker
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms plus den; Master bedroom upstairs; Split bedroom layout
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks and shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cable prewire; Closet cabinets; High-speed internet available; Smoke detectors; Tray ceiling; Volume ceiling; Walk-in closet; Window coverings; 9 total rooms; Unfurnished; 7 ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in residence; Washer; Dryer; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $495k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $401 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $495k).
• Recommended offer: $450k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#692 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Vineyards Elementary School (math 79% / reading 75%, grade A, #170 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 845 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 27% FRL vs 55% district-wide (28 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 77% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+19 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 591 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,722/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($113k/yr) (locally 741% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($450k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $450,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.47%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-70,938
• Equity at exit: $73,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-91,614
• Equity at exit: $42,799

Cash invested: $138,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34119

• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 591
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,722 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax from tax record: −$370 /mo · $4,435/yr
• Insurance: −$206
• HOA: −$948
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,202
• Net cashflow: $401

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,215

Max offer price $495,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $681	-5% $541	+0% $401	+5% $261	+10% $121
Rent	-10% $-51	-5% $175	+0% $401	+5% $627	+10% $853
Rate	-1.0pp $650	-0.5pp $527	base $401	+0.5pp $273	+1.0pp $142

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $123,750
• Closing costs: $14,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1634 Tarpon Bay Dr S #202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2170	$6,000	$2.76	24d	1	0.11mi
1634 Tarpon Bay Dr S #202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2170	$6,000	$2.76	15d	1	0.11mi
2001 Tarpon Bay Dr N #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1620	$5,400	$3.33	24d	1	0.15mi
2004 Tarpon Bay Dr N #101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1759	$2,450	$1.39	24d	1	0.18mi
2004 Tarpon Bay Dr N #201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2170	$6,000	$2.76	24d	1	0.18mi
1761 Tarpon Bay Dr S #58 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1879	$3,299	$1.76	24d	1	0.20mi
1628 Cayman Ct #2 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1879	$6,500	$3.46	24d	1	0.20mi
1710 Tarpon Bay Dr S Unit 4 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1537	$2,200	$1.43	15d	1	0.28mi
2115 Malibu Lake Cir Naples, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1188	$2,791	$2.35	15d	56	0.28mi
6051 Shallows Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$5,000	$2.50	24d	1	0.52mi
6215 Wilshire Pines Cir #1601 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$4,500	$2.83	24d	1	0.60mi
6325 Wilshire Pines Cir #308 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1577	$5,000	$3.17	15d	1	0.67mi
15145 Palmer Lake Cir #103 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1571	$7,000	$4.46	24d	1	0.76mi
10020 Heather Ln Unit 9-904 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,350	$1.43	24d	1	0.80mi
10033 Heather Ln Unit 5-502 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1774	$2,300	$1.30	24d	1	0.83mi
15181 Butler Lake Dr #201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2152	$7,500	$3.49	15d	1	0.89mi
15177 Butler Lake Dr #201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2152	$8,500	$3.95	15d	1	0.91mi
5000 Immokalee Rd Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1115	$4,272	$3.83	15d	68	0.99mi
1156 Oakes Blvd Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1554	$7,500	$4.83	24d	1	1.02mi
5045 Cedar Springs Dr #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1427	$4,200	$2.94	24d	1	1.04mi
5105 Cedar Springs Dr #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1650	$7,000	$4.24	24d	1	1.10mi
5657 Whisperwood Blvd #204 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1793	$6,000	$3.35	24d	1	1.10mi
2740 Cypress Trace Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1493	$3,488	$2.34	24d	3	1.12mi
5125 Cedar Springs Dr #204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2177	$5,650	$2.60	24d	1	1.13mi
2790 Cypress Trace Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1537	$5,000	$3.25	24d	2	1.14mi
2868 Tiburon Blvd E #102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2420	$15,000	$6.20	22d	1	1.15mi
2868 Tiburon Blvd E #102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2420	$15,000	$6.20	24d	1	1.15mi
5645 Whisperwood Blvd #504 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1793	$6,000	$3.35	24d	1	1.15mi
2864 Tiburon Blvd E #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	2159	$13,500	$6.25	24d	1	1.16mi
2864 Tiburon Blvd E #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	2159	$13,500	$6.25	14d	1	1.16mi
2864 Tiburon Blvd E #102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2420	$21,000	$8.68	24d	1	1.16mi
5632 Whisperwood Blvd #1601 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1856	$8,000	$4.31	24d	1	1.20mi
2525 Aspen Creek Ln #101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$4,500	$2.94	24d	1	1.21mi
2830 Tiburon Blvd E #103 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2508	$14,000	$5.58	24d	1	1.21mi
5360 Andover Dr #202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1928	$6,500	$3.37	24d	1	1.21mi
2847 Tiburon Blvd E #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	2159	$6,500	$3.01	15d	1	1.21mi
2826 Tiburon Blvd E #103 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2502	$20,000	$7.99	24d	1	1.22mi
1638 Triangle Palm Ter Naples, FL	4.0	2.0	2028	$10,000	$4.93	15d	1	1.23mi
2820 Cypress Trace Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1254	$3,748	$2.99	24d	3	1.25mi
5330 Andover Dr #102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,550	$1.47	24d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $948 · $11,376/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscaping
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $495,000 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $495,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $495,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $495,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $495,000 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $495,000 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $495,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $495,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $495,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $495,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $495,000 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $495,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $495,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $495,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $495,000 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-03-11
    listed $495,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,435 · $370/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,435 · $370/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $68,665
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,728
• − Property taxes: −$4,435
• − Insurance: −$2,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,493
• − Management: −$5,493
• − HOA: −$11,376
• − Depreciation: −$14,400
• Taxable loss: −$2,735
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$656
• After-tax cash flow: $5,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Island Walk

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #692
• US rank: #14444

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 36,807
• Household income: $113,391
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 741.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -243.12%
• Current HPI: 269.3208
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Listed $495,000 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,435 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.