2 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,168 sqft ·
Built 1995
· Condo
· Active
· 75 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,875/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,678
Tax + insurance
−$692
HOA
−$282
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$604
Net cashflow
$-381/mo
Annual
$-4,570/yr
Cap rate
4.86%
Cash-on-cash
-5.10%
DSCR
0.77
1% rule
0.90%
Cash to close
$89,600
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $320k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-381 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (21.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (10.2% below list).
It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $253k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 72/100 on livability (#351 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Monroe-Woodbury Central School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #250 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Pine Tree Elementary School (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,271 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 786 students, 42% FRL); Monroe-Woodbury Middle School (math 28% / reading 50%, grade F, #433 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 1,584 students, 40% FRL); Monroe-Woodbury High School (math 98% / reading 95%, grade A+, #56 of 1,100 statewide, top 5%, 2,353 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 15% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 322 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.3% in Monroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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· Data 21 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29