13300 April Cir

Lovettsville, VA 20180

$999,000D

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 4,942 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Active · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,409/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,239
• Tax + insurance: −$1,094
• HOA: −$69
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$716
• Net cashflow: $-3,708/mo
• Annual: $-44,502/yr
• Cap rate: 1.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.91%
• DSCR: 0.29
• 1% rule: 0.34%
• Cash to close: $279,720

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $999k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-45k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $344k (65.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $341k (65.9% below list).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($939k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $341k (65.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $107k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $100k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#105 in VA, #3,260 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F, cost of living F.
• Loudoun County Public School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #7 of 131 in VA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lovettsville Elementary (math 47% / reading 77%, grade B, #480 of 1,108 statewide, top 46%, 526 students, 14% FRL); Harmony Middle (math 50% / reading 77%, grade B+, #128 of 342 statewide, top 39%, 1,083 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 3,317 units permitted in Loudoun County in 2024 (1,818 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Loudoun County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $76k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $620k; list at $999k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$172k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 66% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.