7909 Orion St

Loves Park, IL 61111

$179,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,322 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,688/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$345
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $45/mo
• Annual: $545/yr
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.08%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($545/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (6.2% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#255 in IL, #4,724 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, commute F.
• Harlem UD 122 (suburban): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #418 of 620 in IL (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Rock Cut Elem School (math 13% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,141 of 2,056 statewide, top 59%, 407 students, 0% FRL); Harlem High School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #350 of 693 statewide, top 51%, 1,875 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $180k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.9% in Loves Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.