7909 Orion St · Loves Park, IL 61111

$179,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,322 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1965 6,534 sqft lot Est $181k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch in a convenient Machesney Park location! Hard surface flooring throughout welcomes you as you step inside, creating a clean and cohesive feel. The updated kitchen offers modern touches and great functionality for everyday living. Downstairs, the finished lower level provides the perfect space for entertaining, game nights, or gatherings while still offering plenty of storage. Outside, enjoy peace of mind with a metal roof and soak up summer on the brand-new deck overlooking the nice-sized backyard complete with a fire pit, perfect for relaxing evenings. Conveniently located close to shopping, restaurants, parks, and life's everyday conveniences!

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Brand-new deck
• Nice-sized backyard

Tags

• HARD SURFACE FLOORING
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• FINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• METAL ROOF
• BRAND-NEW DECK
• NICE-SIZED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1.5 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence (house)
• Construction: Below-grade finished area included (494); Has basement
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; 0.15-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop, microwave, refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas cooktop, microwave, refrigerator; Gas water heater; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($545/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (6.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.9% in Loves Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#255 in IL, #4,724 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, commute F.
• Harlem UD 122 (suburban): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #418 of 620 in IL (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Rock Cut Elem School (math 13% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,141 of 2,056 statewide, top 59%, 407 students, 0% FRL); Harlem High School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #350 of 693 statewide, top 51%, 1,875 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $180k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $168,826 (6.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.08%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $181,114
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7701 Edwin Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,349 (+2%)	7mo	$205,000	$152	79
7418 Orion St	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,304 (-1%)	1mo	$200,000	$153	79
7502 Buffalo Grove Rd	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,332 (+1%)	2mo	$166,000	$125	66
1910 Plateau Ave	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,512 (+14%)	4mo	$160,000	$106	65
7713 Mildred Rd	0.27mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,428 (+8%)	7mo	$76,000	$53	63
4812 Pine-al Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-2%)	1mo	$245,000	$188	60
810 Pettit Ct	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,312 (-1%)	5mo	$180,000	$137	60
7913 Mildred Rd	0.26mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,128 (-15%)	6mo	$134,000	$119	54
8632 Scott Ln	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,284 (-3%)	7mo	$254,900	$199	50
8512 Mildred Rd	0.64mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,200 (-9%)	1mo	$152,000	$127	47
8624 Scott Ln	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,404 (+6%)	6mo	$268,900	$192	44
825 Harlem Rd	0.68mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,504 (+14%)	2mo	$185,000	$123	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-26,203
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-18,873
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61111

• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,688 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$270 /mo · $3,239/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,631

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5253 Harlem Rd Loves Park, IL	3.0	1.0	1600	$1,850	$1.16	21d	1	1.02mi
1051 Minns Dr Unit 1051-3 Machesney Park, IL	2.0	2.0	1208	$1,700	$1.41	13d	1	1.05mi
1028 Minns Dr Unit 1028-D Machesney Park, IL	3.0	2.0	1228	$1,850	$1.51	21d	1	1.10mi
4041 Rennhart Loves Park, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0	1027	$1,250	$1.22	13d	5	1.23mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $179,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (714 chars)

   Welcome home to this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch in a convenient Machesney Park location! Hard surface flooring throughout welcomes you as you step inside, creating a clean and cohesive feel. The updated kitchen offers modern touches and great functionality for everyday living. Downstairs, the finished lower level provides the perfect space for entertaining, game nights, or gatherings while still offering plenty of storage. Outside, enjoy peace of mind with a metal roof and soak up summer on the brand-new deck overlooking the nice-sized backyard complete with a fire pit, perfect for relaxing evenings. Conveniently located close to shopping, restaurants, parks, and life's everyday conveniences!

2. 2026-05-26
   listed $179,900 Active 714-char remark

   Show marketing remark (714 chars)

   Welcome home to this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch in a convenient Machesney Park location! Hard surface flooring throughout welcomes you as you step inside, creating a clean and cohesive feel. The updated kitchen offers modern touches and great functionality for everyday living. Downstairs, the finished lower level provides the perfect space for entertaining, game nights, or gatherings while still offering plenty of storage. Outside, enjoy peace of mind with a metal roof and soak up summer on the brand-new deck overlooking the nice-sized backyard complete with a fire pit, perfect for relaxing evenings. Conveniently located close to shopping, restaurants, parks, and life's everyday conveniences!

3. 2017-07-12
   soldstatus $74,900
4. 2017-07-07
   soldstatus $74,900 484-char remark

   Show marketing remark (484 chars)

   Don’t miss this charming move-in ready home located on the end of a cul-de-sac. It features a steel roof with a 50 year warranty, newer vinyl windows, updated bathroom, updated kitchen with newer kitchen cabinets and stainless steel oven and microwave. Laminate flooring in the living room and bedrooms. Partially finished lower level space and a private fenced in back yard with a 16’ x 12 deck. All appliances stay including the washer and dryer. Definitely a must see!!

5. 2017-05-19
   listed $74,900 484-char remark

   Show marketing remark (484 chars)

   Don’t miss this charming move-in ready home located on the end of a cul-de-sac. It features a steel roof with a 50 year warranty, newer vinyl windows, updated bathroom, updated kitchen with newer kitchen cabinets and stainless steel oven and microwave. Laminate flooring in the living room and bedrooms. Partially finished lower level space and a private fenced in back yard with a 16’ x 12 deck. All appliances stay including the washer and dryer. Definitely a must see!!

6. 2013-05-06
   soldstatus $55,000
7. 2010-10-07
   historical
8. 2009-10-20
   price Price Change
9. 2009-04-13
   listed
10. 2008-10-06
    historical
11. 2008-04-05
    listed
12. 1996-04-08
    soldstatus $72,500
13. 1996-04-08
    soldstatus $72,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,239 · $270/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,661 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$422/yr (+$35/mo · 13.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,259
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$3,239
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,621
• − Management: −$1,621
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$2,431
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$583
• After-tax cash flow: $1,129/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlem UD 122
• NCES district ID: 1718240
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,228
• Composite: 18.01/100
• National rank: #8982
• State rank: #418 of 620 in IL

Livability — Loves Park

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #255
• US rank: #4724

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Loves Park, IL
• City population: 22,838
• Population (ZIP): 22,838

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.48%
• Current HPI: 222.3872
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+148.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $179,900 NWIAR
• 2026-05-26 Listed $179,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $74,900 Public Records
• 2017-07-07 Sold (MLS) $74,900 NWIAR
• 2017-05-19 Listed $74,900 NWIAR
• 2013-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2010-10-07 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-10-20 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-13 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-06 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-05 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $72,500 Public Records
• 1996-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $72,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,239 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.