3871 Holders Grove Rd

Cosby, TN 37722

$423,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,246 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Active · 169 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,608/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,218
• Tax + insurance: −$265
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $-1,212/mo
• Annual: $-14,550/yr
• Cap rate: 2.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.28%
• DSCR: 0.45
• 1% rule: 0.38%
• Cash to close: $118,440

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $423k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (50.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (62.0% below list).
• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($372k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $161k (62.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cocke County (rural): math 21% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #112 of 139 in TN (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smoky Mountain Elementary (math 37% / reading 27%, grade F, #369 of 952 statewide, top 42%, 178 students, 0% FRL); Cosby High School (math 8% / reading 27%, grade F, #215 of 332 statewide, top 67%, 326 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 71% district-wide (71 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 171 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Cocke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cocke County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$73k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.9% vs local median 2.3% in Cosby — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 62% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.