3871 Holders Grove Rd · Cosby, TN 37722

$423,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,246 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 167 Days on market

Built 2021 1.18 ac lot $339/sqft · 21% below area Est $537k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +3.8/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOUNTAIN VIEW, SELLERS ARE MOTIVATED TO SELL. Welcome to Cosby. This home is located +/- 15 miles to Gatlinburg. As you enter the front door you will stand in awe of this beautiful home. Wood burning fireplace in the living room and fully furnished ready to move in home. The kitchen is fully stocked and has stainless steel appliances. Two large bedrooms one downstairs and the other upstairs. Both have full bathrooms. Stackable washer and dryer. Ceiling fans in both bedrooms. Large back yard with plenty of room to build on if you so desire. Hot tub on the back porch. Cosby is prime location for Air B & B 0r just living in the beautiful landscape of the foothills of the Great Smoky Mountains. Buyer and buyer's agent to confirm all details as listed.

Key facts

• Hot tub
• Large back yard
• Fully furnished

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• FULLY FURNISHED
• HOT TUB
• LARGE BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $423k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (50.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (62.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (62.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.9% vs local median 2.3% in Cosby — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cocke County (rural): math 21% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #112 of 139 in TN (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Cocke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cocke County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$73k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($372k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,803 (62.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 62% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.38% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.28%
• DSCR: 0.45
• GRM: 21.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $537,246
• List price: $423,000
• Delta: -21.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3871 Holders Grove Rd	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,246 (0%)	21mo	$358,000	$287	83
104 Ball Park Rd	0.47mi	2/1.0	1,080 (-13%)	17mo	$225,000	$208	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $152,906
• Equity at exit: $381,072

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.31×
• Total profit: $510,522
• Equity at exit: $821,796

Cash invested: $118,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37722

• Home prices YoY: 27.9%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 21.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,608 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,218
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,060/yr
• Insurance: −$176
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $-1,212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,143

Max offer price $208,807

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-973	-5% $-1,093	+0% $-1,212	+5% $-1,332	+10% $-1,452
Rent	-10% $-1,340	-5% $-1,276	+0% $-1,212	+5% $-1,149	+10% $-1,085
Rate	-1.0pp $-999	-0.5pp $-1,105	base $-1,212	+0.5pp $-1,322	+1.0pp $-1,434

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,750
• Closing costs: $12,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $423,000 Active 167 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $423,000 Active 166 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $423,000 Active 165 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $423,000 Active 164 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $423,000 Active 163 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $423,000 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $423,000 Active 160 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $423,000 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $423,000 Active 157 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $423,000 Active 156 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $423,000 Active 155 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $423,000 Active 152 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $423,000 Active 150 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $423,000 Active 149 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $423,000 Active 148 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $423,000 Active 147 DOM
17. 2026-04-30
    price $423,000 761-char remark

    Show marketing remark (663 chars)

    MOUNTAIN VIEWS. SELLERS ARE VERY MOTIVATED TO SELL. Welcome to Cosby. This home is located +/- 15 miles to Gatlinburg and less than five to the Cosby entrance of the Great Smoky Mountains. This home has a wood burning fireplace, fully furnished on the inside ready to move in. Two large bedrooms one downstairs and other upstairs both with full bathrooms. The home offers a stack washer and dryer. You can sit out back in the hot tub and star gaze in the evening. The back yard is large enough if you need a garage built there is plenty of room. This home is fully furnished and ready to move in. Buyer and buyer's agent to verify all information correct.

18. 2026-04-30
    price $423,000 663-char remark

    Show marketing remark (663 chars)

    MOUNTAIN VIEWS. SELLERS ARE VERY MOTIVATED TO SELL. Welcome to Cosby. This home is located +/- 15 miles to Gatlinburg and less than five to the Cosby entrance of the Great Smoky Mountains. This home has a wood burning fireplace, fully furnished on the inside ready to move in. Two large bedrooms one downstairs and other upstairs both with full bathrooms. The home offers a stack washer and dryer. You can sit out back in the hot tub and star gaze in the evening. The back yard is large enough if you need a garage built there is plenty of room. This home is fully furnished and ready to move in. Buyer and buyer's agent to verify all information correct.

19. 2026-03-17
    price $433,000 663-char remark

    Show marketing remark (761 chars)

    MOUNTAIN VIEW, SELLERS ARE MOTIVATED TO SELL. Welcome to Cosby. This home is located +/- 15 miles to Gatlinburg. As you enter the front door you will stand in awe of this beautiful home. Wood burning fireplace in the living room and fully furnished ready to move in home. The kitchen is fully stocked and has stainless steel appliances. Two large bedrooms one downstairs and the other upstairs. Both have full bathrooms. Stackable washer and dryer. Ceiling fans in both bedrooms. Large back yard with plenty of room to build on if you so desire. Hot tub on the back porch. Cosby is prime location for Air B & B 0r just living in the beautiful landscape of the foothills of the Great Smoky Mountains. Buyer and buyer's agent to confirm all details as listed.

20. 2026-03-17
    price $433,000 761-char remark

    Show marketing remark (761 chars)

    MOUNTAIN VIEW, SELLERS ARE MOTIVATED TO SELL. Welcome to Cosby. This home is located +/- 15 miles to Gatlinburg. As you enter the front door you will stand in awe of this beautiful home. Wood burning fireplace in the living room and fully furnished ready to move in home. The kitchen is fully stocked and has stainless steel appliances. Two large bedrooms one downstairs and the other upstairs. Both have full bathrooms. Stackable washer and dryer. Ceiling fans in both bedrooms. Large back yard with plenty of room to build on if you so desire. Hot tub on the back porch. Cosby is prime location for Air B & B 0r just living in the beautiful landscape of the foothills of the Great Smoky Mountains. Buyer and buyer's agent to confirm all details as listed.

21. 2026-01-03
    listed $435,000 Active 761-char remark

    Show marketing remark (663 chars)

    MOUNTAIN VIEWS. SELLERS ARE VERY MOTIVATED TO SELL. Welcome to Cosby. This home is located +/- 15 miles to Gatlinburg and less than five to the Cosby entrance of the Great Smoky Mountains. This home has a wood burning fireplace, fully furnished on the inside ready to move in. Two large bedrooms one downstairs and other upstairs both with full bathrooms. The home offers a stack washer and dryer. You can sit out back in the hot tub and star gaze in the evening. The back yard is large enough if you need a garage built there is plenty of room. This home is fully furnished and ready to move in. Buyer and buyer's agent to verify all information correct.

22. 2026-01-03
    listed $435,000 Active 663-char remark

    Show marketing remark (663 chars)

    MOUNTAIN VIEWS. SELLERS ARE VERY MOTIVATED TO SELL. Welcome to Cosby. This home is located +/- 15 miles to Gatlinburg and less than five to the Cosby entrance of the Great Smoky Mountains. This home has a wood burning fireplace, fully furnished on the inside ready to move in. Two large bedrooms one downstairs and other upstairs both with full bathrooms. The home offers a stack washer and dryer. You can sit out back in the hot tub and star gaze in the evening. The back yard is large enough if you need a garage built there is plenty of room. This home is fully furnished and ready to move in. Buyer and buyer's agent to verify all information correct.

23. 2025-06-02
    price $449,900
24. 2025-06-02
    price $449,900
25. 2024-12-27
    price $464,000
26. 2024-12-27
    price $464,000
27. 2024-10-08
    listed $465,000 Active
28. 2024-03-29
    price $369,999
29. 2023-11-17
    price $424,000
30. 2023-06-14
    listed $425,000 Active
31. 2022-12-03
    historical
32. 2022-09-09
    price $2,243,000
33. 2022-08-20
    listed $2,493,000 Active
34. 2021-11-10
    soldstatus $432,000
35. 2021-11-05
    soldstatus $432,000
36. 2021-01-26
    soldstatus $75,000
37. 2020-07-22
    listed $174,900
38. 2018-05-29
    listed $165,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,060 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,003 · $250/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,943/yr (+$162/mo · 183.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥99°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,296
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,695
• − Property taxes: −$1,060
• − Insurance: −$2,115
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,544
• − Management: −$1,544
• − Depreciation: −$12,305
• Taxable loss: −$22,966
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,512
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,038/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cocke County
• NCES district ID: 4700750
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $33,486
• Composite: 17.17/100
• National rank: #9109
• State rank: #112 of 139 in TN

Livability — Cosby

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,430

Population outlook (Cocke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,586 people
• By 2030: 32,394 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 29,727 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 27,075 · -19.4%
• By 2075: 22,590 · -32.7%
• By 2100: 19,643 · -41.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Cocke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.2) · D 15.4% · R 83.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.3pp toward R · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -68.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.2 2020: R+64.8 2016: R+64.5 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 85.12%
• Current HPI: 390.2959
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+156.4% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $423,000 TVRMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $423,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $433,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $433,000 TVRMLS
• 2026-01-03 Listed $435,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-01-03 Listed $435,000 TVRMLS
• 2025-06-02 Price Changed $449,900 TVRMLS
• 2025-06-02 Price Changed $449,900 GSMAR
• 2024-12-27 Price Changed $464,000 TVRMLS
• 2024-12-27 Price Changed $464,000 GSMAR
• 2024-10-08 Listed $465,000 GSMAR
• 2024-03-29 Price Changed $369,999 GSMAR
• 2023-11-17 Price Changed $424,000 GSMAR
• 2023-06-14 Listed $425,000 GSMAR
• 2022-12-03 Listing Removed — Knoxville MLS
• 2022-09-09 Price Changed $2,243,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2022-08-20 Listed $2,493,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2021-11-10 Sold (Public Records) $432,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-05 Sold (MLS) $432,000 GSMAR
• 2021-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2020-07-22 Listed $174,900 LAAR
• 2018-05-29 Listed $165,000 Knoxville MLS

Property tax history

+23.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,060 · +19.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.