3 Pike Rd

Winthrop, NY 13613

$45,000B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $984/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax + insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $364/mo
• Annual: $4,368/yr
• Cap rate: 16.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.66%
• DSCR: 2.54
• 1% rule: 2.19%
• Cash to close: $12,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $364 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($984 rent vs $45k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,067 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Brasher Falls Central School District (rural): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #499 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.2% of price.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 215 units permitted in St. Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (39%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $45k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.