2506 Kenmore Rd

Lakeside, VA 23228

$549,000D

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,306 sqft · Built 1953 · MultiFamily · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,414/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,879
• Tax + insurance: −$510
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$927
• Net cashflow: $98/mo
• Annual: $1,173/yr
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.76%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $153,720

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3.0-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $549k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $98 ($1k/yr) — positive. Per door: $49/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $441k (19.6% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($541k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $441k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#219 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lakeside Elementary (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #866 of 1,108 statewide, top 80%, 438 students, 90% FRL); George H. Moody Middle (math 61% / reading 71%, grade A-, #113 of 342 statewide, top 33%, 1,072 students, 40% FRL); Hermitage High (math 38% / reading 74%, grade C, #275 of 319 statewide, top 87%, 1,717 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 34% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $235k; list at $549k implies a 134% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.9% in Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,414/mo this rent would consume 75% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 1712% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.