2506 Kenmore Rd · Lakeside, VA 23228

$549,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,306 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1953 0.31 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent entry level two unit duplex in the Lakeside area just south of Dumbarton. Individuals can walk to Bryant park; the neighborhood is very quiet and appealing with many beautiful homes; the commute to downtown and/or west end is very short. Unit one is a two bedroom with one full bath, family room and eat-in kitchen. Second unit is a three bedroom with one and a half baths, family room and eat-in kitchen. Both units are renting below market with room for improvement on future leases. The rear yards are fully fenced and separated for the tenants. Separately metered. This one won't last long. Owner/occupancy possible.

Key facts

• Updated baths
• In unit washer dryer
• Classic wood floors

Tags

• INCOME PRODUCING DUPLEX
• PRIVATE SIDE BY SIDE UNITS
• UPDATED BATHS
• CLASSIC WOOD FLOORS
• SPACIOUS EAT IN KITCHEN
• IN UNIT WASHER DRYER

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Two-unit property with rental income (unit rents listed); Unit 1 rent: $1,595 (leased through May 31, 2027); Unit 2 rent: $1,790 (leased through March 31, 2027)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Off-street paved parking; On-street parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story building; R4 zoning
• Construction: Block and mixed construction; Shingle roof; Crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Storage shed; Paved driveway; Fenced backyard with privacy fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric stove; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One unit with 2 bedrooms; One unit with 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate counters noted (flooring type not specified)
• Bathrooms: One unit with 1 full bathroom; One unit with 2 bathrooms (1 full, 1 half)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Storm windows; Storm door(s); Dining area; Eat-in kitchen; Laminate counters; Main level primary; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Dryer hookup (both units); Washer hookup (one unit); Electric meter (separate meters); Central air; Heat pump

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3.0-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $549k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $98 ($1k/yr) — positive. Per door: $49/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $441k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $441k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.9% in Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#219 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lakeside Elementary (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #866 of 1,108 statewide, top 80%, 438 students, 90% FRL); George H. Moody Middle (math 61% / reading 71%, grade A-, #113 of 342 statewide, top 33%, 1,072 students, 40% FRL); Hermitage High (math 38% / reading 74%, grade C, #275 of 319 statewide, top 87%, 1,717 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 34% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,414/mo this rent would consume 75% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 1712% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($541k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $235k; list at $549k implies a 134% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $441,400 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.76%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-95,856
• Equity at exit: $81,858

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-126,187
• Equity at exit: $47,467

Cash invested: $153,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23228

• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 20.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,414 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,879
• Tax from tax record: −$282 /mo · $3,379/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$927
• Net cashflow: $98

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,290

Max offer price $549,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $408	-5% $253	+0% $98	+5% $-58	+10% $-213
Rent	-10% $-251	-5% $-77	+0% $98	+5% $272	+10% $446
Rate	-1.0pp $374	-0.5pp $237	base $98	+0.5pp $-45	+1.0pp $-189

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3.0	1.5	$4,414
Total (2 units)			$4,414

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,250
• Closing costs: $16,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4815 Coleman Rd Richmond, VA	4.0	2.0	2068	$2,750	$1.33	4d	1	0.72mi
4820 Coleman Rd Richmond, VA	4.0	3.5	2868	$2,600	$0.91	4d	1	0.73mi
4820 Bethlehem Rd Richmond, VA	4.0	2.5	2145	$2,650	$1.24	45d	1	0.85mi
1724 Wilmington Ave Richmond, VA	4.0	2.0	2109	$3,200	$1.52	25d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $549,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $549,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $549,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $549,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $549,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $549,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $599,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $599,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $599,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-05
    listed $599,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,379 · $282/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,502 · $375/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,123/yr (+$94/mo · 33.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,968
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,753
• − Property taxes: −$3,379
• − Insurance: −$2,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,237
• − Management: −$4,237
• − Depreciation: −$15,971
• Taxable loss: −$8,354
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,005
• After-tax cash flow: $3,178/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henrico County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101890
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $61,854
• Composite: 49.25/100
• National rank: #2031
• State rank: #68 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lakeside

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #219
• US rank: #7244

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeside, VA
• County: Henrico County · 334,490 people
• City population: 36,527
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 36,527
• Household income: $70,260
• Rent vs Own: 48.2% rent · 51.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1712.0

Population outlook (Henrico County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,885 people
• By 2030: 384,255 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 416,688 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 442,376 · +20.9%
• By 2075: 488,037 · +33.4%
• By 2100: 487,430 · +33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, India
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henrico

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.9) · D 63.7% · R 34.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.9 2020: D+29.0 2016: D+21.0 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -342.74%
• Current HPI: 349.8903
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.07%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+130.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $599,000 CVRMLS
• 2015-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 2015-07-31 Sold (MLS) $225,000 CVRMLS
• 2015-06-05 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2015-05-21 Listed $259,950 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,379 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.