Elliott Plan

Lakeway, TX 78669

$505,990F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,152 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,877/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,996
• Tax + insurance: −$952
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$814
• Net cashflow: $-885/mo
• Annual: $-10,626/yr
• Cap rate: 4.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.64%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $159,984

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $506k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-885 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $443k (12.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $388k (23.4% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $388k (23.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#330 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lake Travis ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #39 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: West Cypress Hills El (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 599 students, 11% FRL); Lake Travis Middle (math 60% / reading 57%, grade B, #185 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 878 students, 0% FRL); Lake Travis H S (math 54% / reading 75%, grade B-, #199 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,701 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 653 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 1.7% in Lakeway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($128k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.