Elliott Plan · Lakeway, TX 78669

$505,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,152 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Personalize the Elliott floor plan to perfectly suit you. This open new home construction design is ideal for both entertaining and everyday living. With flexible options, you can create a space that's truly yours, add a spa-inspired owner's bath for ultimate relaxation, a cozy home office, or a covered patio for outdoor gatherings and dining.

Key facts

• Cozy home office
• Elliott floor plan
• Covered patio

Tags

• ELLIOTT FLOOR PLAN
• NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION
• SPA INSPIRED OWNER'S BATH
• COZY HOME OFFICE
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $505,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Elliott)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,152

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Elliott (new construction)

🏗️ New construction. The $505,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $571,373.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $506k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-885 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $443k (12.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $388k (23.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $388k (23.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 1.7% in Lakeway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#330 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lake Travis ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #39 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: West Cypress Hills El (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 599 students, 11% FRL); Lake Travis Middle (math 60% / reading 57%, grade B, #185 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 878 students, 0% FRL); Lake Travis H S (math 54% / reading 75%, grade B-, #199 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,701 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 653 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($128k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $387,742 (23.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.64%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $571,373
• List price: $505,990
• Delta: -11.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5521 Texas Bluebell Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,079 (-3%)	11mo	$475,000	$228	72
21708 Agarito Ln	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,265 (+5%)	6mo	$525,000	$232	72
5133 Texas Bluebell Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,286 (+6%)	3mo	$547,000	$239	71
22300 Chipotle Pass	0.47mi	4/2.0	2,153 (0%)	11mo	$525,000	$244	69
22409 Rock Wren Rd	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,370 (+10%)	3mo	$520,000	$219	62
22300 Verbena Pkwy	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,298 (+7%)	8mo	$510,000	$222	55
22212 Red Yucca Rd	0.24mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,967 (-9%)	15mo	$475,000	$241	55
22428 Rock Wren Rd	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,306 (+7%)	13mo	$535,000	$232	53
22328 Rock Wren Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,909 (-11%)	12mo	$425,000	$223	50
22333 Rock Wren Rd	0.33mi	4/3.0	2,356 (+10%)	18mo	$525,000	$223	50
22316 Verbena Pkwy	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,382 (+11%)	7mo	$535,000	$225	48
6605 Cliff Rose Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,975 (-8%)	18mo	$499,718	$253	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-147,515
• Equity at exit: $85,194

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-195,008
• Equity at exit: $49,402

Cash invested: $159,984 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78669

• Home prices YoY: -16.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 653
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,877 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$714 /mo · $8,571/yr
• Insurance: −$238
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$814
• Net cashflow: $-885

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,998

Max offer price $443,244

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-491	-5% $-688	+0% $-885	+5% $-1,083	+10% $-1,280
Rent	-10% $-1,192	-5% $-1,039	+0% $-885	+5% $-732	+10% $-579
Rate	-1.0pp $-598	-0.5pp $-740	base $-885	+0.5pp $-1,034	+1.0pp $-1,184

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $142,843
• Closing costs: $17,141
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22212 Coyote Cave Trl Spicewood, TX	5.0	3.0	2900	$3,600	$1.24	45d	1	0.59mi
22208 Coyote Cave Trl Spicewood, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,990	$1.66	23d	1	0.59mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on marketlisting id $505,990 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $505,990 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $505,990 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $505,990 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $505,990 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $505,990 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $505,990 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $505,990 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $505,990 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $505,990 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $505,990 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $505,990 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $505,990 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $505,990 Active 121 DOM
15. 2026-01-31
    listed $505,990 Active 345-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,529
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,006
• − Property taxes: −$8,571
• − Insurance: −$2,857
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,722
• − Management: −$3,722
• − Depreciation: −$16,622
• Taxable loss: −$20,971
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,033
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,593/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This Elliott plan is a move-in-ready single-family home with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The floor plan offers flexibility and options for personalization, making it ideal for both entertaining and everyday living.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Travis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826470
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $101,194
• Composite: 55.13/100
• National rank: #1283
• State rank: #39 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lakeway

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #7227

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 22,145
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,592
• Household income: $128,000
• Rent vs Own: 7.9% rent · 92.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.06%
• Current HPI: 251.3551
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.36%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B