63 Bear Vly

Candy Kitchen, NM 87357

$116,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Active · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,125/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$608
• Tax + insurance: −$193
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $87/mo
• Annual: $1,044/yr
• Cap rate: 7.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.21%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $32,480

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $116k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $87 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (3.0% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($802 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Grants-Cibola County Schools (town): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #74 of 95 in NM (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: San Rafael Elementary (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #17 of 68 statewide, top 34%, 53 students, 100% FRL); Los Alamitos Middle (418 students, 100% FRL); Grants High (843 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 70% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 18% district-wide (+32 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Grants-Cibola County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP.
• Cibola County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — Significant damage and potential leaks.
• Major: exterior siding — Peeling and damaged, indicating extensive wear and tear.
• Major: HVAC condensers — Visible damage and potential issues with the cooling system.
• Major: landscaping — Sparse and in poor condition, indicating neglect.
• Major: windows — Not visible, but exterior condition suggests they may be in poor shape and in need of replacement or repair.