63 Bear Vly · Candy Kitchen, NM 87357

$116,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured · 7 Days on market

Built 1997 Poor condition 27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks

This secluded nice 27.16 acre property has a manufactured home that needs some TLC. Adjacent property also for sale if you want to expand more. Being at the end of Bear Valley will give endless privacy. Call for more details today! Owner financing!

Key facts

• 27.16 acre lot
• Built 1997
• Listed 7 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Propane
• Home design: Manufactured on land; Residential property
• Exterior features: Irregular-shaped lot; 27.16 acres

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating system listed
• Interior features: No central heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $116k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $87 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (3.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Grants-Cibola County Schools (town): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #74 of 95 in NM (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($802 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Cibola County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,486 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.21%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $19,532
• Equity at exit: $52,159

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $61,807
• Equity at exit: $80,383

Cash invested: $32,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87357

• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,125 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$608
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$145 /mo · $1,740/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,015

Max offer price $116,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $167	-5% $127	+0% $87	+5% $47	+10% $7
Rent	-10% $-2	-5% $43	+0% $87	+5% $131	+10% $176
Rate	-1.0pp $145	-0.5pp $117	base $87	+0.5pp $57	+1.0pp $26

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,000
• Closing costs: $3,480
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $116,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $116,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $116,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   remarks 248-char remark
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $116,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-05-27
   listed $116,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥87°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,498
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,498
• − Property taxes: −$1,740
• − Insurance: −$580
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,080
• − Management: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$3,375
• Taxable loss: −$854
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$205
• After-tax cash flow: $1,249/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including roof, siding, HVAC, landscaping, and windows. Significant improvements are needed to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant damage and potential leaks.
• Major exterior siding — Peeling and damaged, indicating extensive wear and tear.
• Major HVAC condensers — Visible damage and potential issues with the cooling system.
• Major landscaping — Sparse and in poor condition, indicating neglect.
• Major windows — Not visible, but exterior condition suggests they may be in poor shape and in need of replacement or repair.

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof repair — Fixing the roof will improve the overall condition and appearance of the home.
• Both exterior siding repair — Repairing the siding will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value.
• Both HVAC system replacement — Replacing the HVAC system will improve comfort and energy efficiency, increasing both resale and rental value.
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Improving the landscaping will enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its value.
• Both painting — Painting the exterior will improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both window replacement — Replacing the windows will improve the home's energy efficiency and increase its value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant damage and potential leaks.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Peeling and damaged, indicating extensive wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC condensers · Visible damage and potential issues with the cooling system.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Sparse and in poor condition, indicating neglect.	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · Not visible, but exterior condition suggests they may be in poor shape and in need of replacement or repair.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both roof repair — Fixing the roof will improve the overall condition and appearance of the home. ↑
• Both exterior siding repair — Repairing the siding will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both HVAC system replacement — Replacing the HVAC system will improve comfort and energy efficiency, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Improving the landscaping will enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both painting — Painting the exterior will improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both window replacement — Replacing the windows will improve the home's energy efficiency and increase its value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grants-Cibola County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501170
• Math proficiency: 14% —
• Reading proficiency: 22% —
• Median HH income: $35,996
• Composite: 18.23/100
• National rank: #14064
• State rank: #74 of 95 in NM

Livability — Candy Kitchen

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,162

Population outlook (Cibola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,324 people
• By 2030: 25,594 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 24,117 · -8.4%
• By 2050: 22,568 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 18,653 · -29.1%
• By 2100: 12,719 · -51.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.98)
• Race & ethnicity: Native American 91% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Cibola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.6% · R 48.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: 29.6pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+8.7 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+23.8 2008: D+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $116,000 NMMLS