11897 Waterside Dr

Buckhall, VA 20112

$180,000D+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · Built 1935 · SingleFamily · Active · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,843/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax + insurance: −$345
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $167/mo
• Annual: $2,007/yr
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.56%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $50,400

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#247 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Prince William County Public School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #30 of 131 in VA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Thurgood Marshall Elementary (math 77% / reading 82%, grade A, #141 of 1,108 statewide, top 14%, 698 students, 23% FRL); Louise A. Benton Middle (math 53% / reading 81%, grade A-, #103 of 342 statewide, top 31%, 1,384 students, 21% FRL); Brentsville District High (math 60% / reading 87%, grade B+, #124 of 319 statewide, top 40%, 883 students, 20% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,418 units permitted in Prince William County in 2024 (625 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Prince William County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.0% in Buckhall — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 11% of the median local income ($195k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.