11897 Waterside Dr · Buckhall, VA 20112

$180,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1935 3,598 sqft lot $375/sqft · 37% above area Est $132k · 37% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is a diamond in the rough, ready for your vision and creativity. Whether you’re a seasoned investor looking for your next flip, a landlord seeking a valuable addition to your rental portfolio, or a homeowner eager to add value, this home offers incredible potential and return on investment. Features: • Handyman Special: Ideal for those who love a good project. • Needs TLC: Customize and renovate to your liking. • Fixer-Upper: Great potential to add significant value. • As-Is Sale: Perfect for those ready to take on a rehab project. • Investment Property: Great for buy-and-hold investors and landlords. • Value-Add Opportunity: Unlock the property’s full income potential. • Great ROI: Endless possibilities to transform and profit.

Key facts

• 3,598 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1935

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.0% in Buckhall — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#247 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Prince William County Public School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #30 of 131 in VA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Thurgood Marshall Elementary (math 77% / reading 82%, grade A, #141 of 1,108 statewide, top 14%, 698 students, 23% FRL); Louise A. Benton Middle (math 53% / reading 81%, grade A-, #103 of 342 statewide, top 31%, 1,384 students, 21% FRL); Brentsville District High (math 60% / reading 87%, grade B+, #124 of 319 statewide, top 40%, 883 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,418 units permitted in Prince William County in 2024 (625 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 11% of the median local income ($195k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince William County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.56%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $131,811
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: 36.56%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-18,461
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,135
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20112

• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,843 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,441/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,631

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $269	-5% $218	+0% $167	+5% $116	+10% $65
Rent	-10% $22	-5% $94	+0% $167	+5% $240	+10% $313
Rate	-1.0pp $258	-0.5pp $213	base $167	+0.5pp $121	+1.0pp $73

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $180,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $180,000 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-04-15
    status Active 799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    This property is a diamond in the rough, ready for your vision and creativity. Whether you’re a seasoned investor looking for your next flip, a landlord seeking a valuable addition to your rental portfolio, or a homeowner eager to add value, this home offers incredible potential and return on investment. Features: • Handyman Special: Ideal for those who love a good project. • Needs TLC: Customize and renovate to your liking. • Fixer-Upper: Great potential to add significant value. • As-Is Sale: Perfect for those ready to take on a rehab project. • Investment Property: Great for buy-and-hold investors and landlords. • Value-Add Opportunity: Unlock the property’s full income potential. • Great ROI: Endless possibilities to transform and profit.

16. 2026-04-06
    status Pending 799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    This property is a diamond in the rough, ready for your vision and creativity. Whether you’re a seasoned investor looking for your next flip, a landlord seeking a valuable addition to your rental portfolio, or a homeowner eager to add value, this home offers incredible potential and return on investment. Features: • Handyman Special: Ideal for those who love a good project. • Needs TLC: Customize and renovate to your liking. • Fixer-Upper: Great potential to add significant value. • As-Is Sale: Perfect for those ready to take on a rehab project. • Investment Property: Great for buy-and-hold investors and landlords. • Value-Add Opportunity: Unlock the property’s full income potential. • Great ROI: Endless possibilities to transform and profit.

17. 2026-03-27
    listed $180,000 Active 799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    This property is a diamond in the rough, ready for your vision and creativity. Whether you’re a seasoned investor looking for your next flip, a landlord seeking a valuable addition to your rental portfolio, or a homeowner eager to add value, this home offers incredible potential and return on investment. Features: • Handyman Special: Ideal for those who love a good project. • Needs TLC: Customize and renovate to your liking. • Fixer-Upper: Great potential to add significant value. • As-Is Sale: Perfect for those ready to take on a rehab project. • Investment Property: Great for buy-and-hold investors and landlords. • Value-Add Opportunity: Unlock the property’s full income potential. • Great ROI: Endless possibilities to transform and profit.

18. 2019-01-08
    soldstatus $160,000
19. 2019-01-03
    soldstatus $160,000 Closed 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Renovated inside & out in 2005! Great starter home in lake community w/ water access to boating, fishing, etc! All new appliances, ceramic floors in kitchen & bath, 42" kitchen cabinets, light fixtures, water heater, plumbing, electrical, windows & siding! More photos in tour!

20. 2018-12-14
    status Pending 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Renovated inside & out in 2005! Great starter home in lake community w/ water access to boating, fishing, etc! All new appliances, ceramic floors in kitchen & bath, 42" kitchen cabinets, light fixtures, water heater, plumbing, electrical, windows & siding! More photos in tour!

21. 2018-11-29
    price $159,500 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Renovated inside & out in 2005! Great starter home in lake community w/ water access to boating, fishing, etc! All new appliances, ceramic floors in kitchen & bath, 42" kitchen cabinets, light fixtures, water heater, plumbing, electrical, windows & siding! More photos in tour!

22. 2018-09-14
    listed $162,500 Active 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Renovated inside & out in 2005! Great starter home in lake community w/ water access to boating, fishing, etc! All new appliances, ceramic floors in kitchen & bath, 42" kitchen cabinets, light fixtures, water heater, plumbing, electrical, windows & siding! More photos in tour!

23. 2007-04-13
    historical
24. 2006-11-30
    listed
25. 2006-01-09
    historical
26. 2005-10-11
    listed
27. 2005-09-05
    historical
28. 2005-06-10
    listed
29. 2005-01-20
    soldstatus $130,000
30. 1986-11-19
    soldstatus $42,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,441 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,441 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,117
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$2,441
• − Insurance: −$1,697
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,769
• − Management: −$1,769
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$879
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$211
• After-tax cash flow: $2,218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince William County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103130
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $96,347
• Composite: 57.92/100
• National rank: #1041
• State rank: #30 of 131 in VA

Livability — Buckhall

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #247
• US rank: #8269

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Prince William County · 452,627 people
• City population: 38,153
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 30,500
• Household income: $195,467
• Rent vs Own: 3.4% rent · 96.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 51.0

Population outlook (Prince William County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,759 people
• By 2030: 582,629 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 665,916 · +23.4%
• By 2050: 740,796 · +37.2%
• By 2075: 900,980 · +66.9%
• By 2100: 985,833 · +82.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 8% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 5% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince William

• 2024 margin: D (+18.0) · D 57.6% · R 39.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.1pp toward D · 2008: 15.9pp · 2024: 18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.0 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+20.0 2012: D+16.0 2008: D+15.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -274.57%
• Current HPI: 288.6937
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+323.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-06 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $180,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2019-01-03 Sold (MLS) $160,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-12-14 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-11-29 Price Changed $159,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-09-14 Listed $162,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-04-13 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-11-30 Listed — MRIS
• 2006-01-09 Delisted — MRIS
• 2005-10-11 Listed — MRIS
• 2005-09-05 Delisted — MRIS
• 2005-06-10 Listed — MRIS
• 2005-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 1986-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,441 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.