39651 Flicker Rd

Big Bear Lake, CA 92333

$938,000F

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,684 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Active · 196 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,963/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,919
• Tax + insurance: −$1,383
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,252
• Net cashflow: $-1,591/mo
• Annual: $-19,091/yr
• Cap rate: 4.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.36%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $262,640

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $938k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $657k (30.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $596k (36.4% below list).
• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($825k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $596k (36.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#420 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+; Watch: crime C-, housing C-, health & safety D+.
• Bear Valley Unified (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #289 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Shore Elementary (math 28% / reading 41%, grade F, #719 of 1,571 statewide, top 48%, 523 students, 71% FRL); Big Bear Middle (math 20% / reading 37%, grade F, #231 of 498 statewide, top 47%, 503 students, 68% FRL); Big Bear High (math 37% / reading 67%, grade D+, #296 of 1,170 statewide, top 27%, 624 students, 69% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $198/mo.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.4% in Big Bear Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.