39651 Flicker Rd · Big Bear Lake, CA 92333

$938,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,684 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 193 Days on market

Built 1981 9,380 sqft lot $349/sqft · 23% above area Est $762k · 23% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location, Location, Location! Welcome to this exceptional lake-view retreat in the highly sought-after Big Bear Lake area. A rare gem offers incredible lake and mountain views from every room, along along with easy access to a multitude of outdoor activities, including some of the best hiking trails, off road tracks, the lake, and Captain John's Marina. Whether you're a boater, fisherman, hiker, or simply seeking a tranquil retreat, this property offers the perfect blend of convenience and relaxation. Currently operated as a successful short-term rental, the property generated impressive income and maintained outstanding guest satisfaction. This Big Bear Lake Lodge is offered turnkey and fully furnished, making it ideal as a primary residence, vacation getaway, or income-producing investment. Step inside to discover a warm, inviting interior featuring tasteful décor, abundant natural light, and modern amenities throughout. The open-concept main living area is perfect for gatherings, complete with a cozy fireplace and ample seating to enjoy the panoramic views. The gourmet kitchen comes fully equipped and is the perfect setting for preparing meals and enjoying quality time with family and friends while watching the snow fall. Outdoor living is equally impressive, multiple spacious view decks create ideal spaces for barbecues, al fresco dining, or simply soaking in the sunshine and crisp mountain air. The fenced backyard includes a full-size bocce ball court and a relaxing eight-person spa, offering endless opportunities for entertainment and unwinding. With its breathtaking vistas, turnkey convenience, and prime location for both recreation and relaxation, this is a truly one-of-a-kind property that must be seen to be fully appreciated. Don’t miss the chance to make this extraordinary lake-view lodge your mountain dream home.

Key facts

• Lake view retreat
• Gourmet kitchen
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• LAKE VIEW RETREAT
• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN LIVING AREA
• COZY FIREPLACE
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• MULTIPLE SPACIOUS VIEW DECKS
• FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $938k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $657k (30.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $596k (36.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $596k (36.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.4% in Big Bear Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#420 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+; Watch: crime C-, housing C-, health & safety D+.
• Bear Valley Unified (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #289 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 193 days — a 12% lower offer ($825k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $198/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $596,275 (36.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 193 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.36%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $762,031
• List price: $938,000
• Delta: 23.09%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39448 Cline Miller Pl	0.41mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,880 (+7%)	14mo	$750,000	$260	50
40029 N Shore Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,342 (-13%)	20mo	$1,765,000	$754	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-253,344
• Equity at exit: $139,859

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-351,168
• Equity at exit: $81,101

Cash invested: $262,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92333

• Home prices YoY: -7.9%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,963 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,919
• Tax from tax record: −$794 /mo · $9,524/yr
• Insurance: −$391
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$198 /mo · $2,376/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,252
• Net cashflow: $-1,591

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,977

Max offer price $656,956

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,060	-5% $-1,325	+0% $-1,591	+5% $-1,856	+10% $-2,122
Rent	-10% $-2,062	-5% $-1,826	+0% $-1,591	+5% $-1,355	+10% $-1,120
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,119	-0.5pp $-1,352	base $-1,591	+0.5pp $-1,834	+1.0pp $-2,081

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $234,500
• Closing costs: $28,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1090 Bruin Trl Fawnskin, CA	4.0	3.5	2036	$4,000	$1.96	0d	1	0.31mi
39254 Cedar Dell Rd Fawnskin, CA	4.0	3.0	1876	$10,500	$5.60	0d	1	0.67mi

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $938,000 Active 193 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $938,000 Active 192 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $938,000 Active 191 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $938,000 Active 190 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $938,000 Active 188 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $938,000 Active 187 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $938,000 Active 184 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $938,000 Active 183 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $938,000 Active 182 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $938,000 Active 179 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $938,000 Active 178 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $938,000 Active 177 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $938,000 Active 176 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $938,000 Active 175 DOM
15. 2026-03-28
    price $938,000 1869-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1869 chars)

    Location, Location, Location! Welcome to this exceptional lake-view retreat in the highly sought-after Big Bear Lake area. A rare gem offers incredible lake and mountain views from every room, along along with easy access to a multitude of outdoor activities, including some of the best hiking trails, off road tracks, the lake, and Captain John's Marina. Whether you're a boater, fisherman, hiker, or simply seeking a tranquil retreat, this property offers the perfect blend of convenience and relaxation. Currently operated as a successful short-term rental, the property generated impressive income and maintained outstanding guest satisfaction. This Big Bear Lake Lodge is offered turnkey and fully furnished, making it ideal as a primary residence, vacation getaway, or income-producing investment. Step inside to discover a warm, inviting interior featuring tasteful décor, abundant natural light, and modern amenities throughout. The open-concept main living area is perfect for gatherings, complete with a cozy fireplace and ample seating to enjoy the panoramic views. The gourmet kitchen comes fully equipped and is the perfect setting for preparing meals and enjoying quality time with family and friends while watching the snow fall. Outdoor living is equally impressive, multiple spacious view decks create ideal spaces for barbecues, al fresco dining, or simply soaking in the sunshine and crisp mountain air. The fenced backyard includes a full-size bocce ball court and a relaxing eight-person spa, offering endless opportunities for entertainment and unwinding. With its breathtaking vistas, turnkey convenience, and prime location for both recreation and relaxation, this is a truly one-of-a-kind property that must be seen to be fully appreciated. Don’t miss the chance to make this extraordinary lake-view lodge your mountain dream home.

16. 2025-12-07
    listed $958,000 Active 1869-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1869 chars)

    Location, Location, Location! Welcome to this exceptional lake-view retreat in the highly sought-after Big Bear Lake area. A rare gem offers incredible lake and mountain views from every room, along along with easy access to a multitude of outdoor activities, including some of the best hiking trails, off road tracks, the lake, and Captain John's Marina. Whether you're a boater, fisherman, hiker, or simply seeking a tranquil retreat, this property offers the perfect blend of convenience and relaxation. Currently operated as a successful short-term rental, the property generated impressive income and maintained outstanding guest satisfaction. This Big Bear Lake Lodge is offered turnkey and fully furnished, making it ideal as a primary residence, vacation getaway, or income-producing investment. Step inside to discover a warm, inviting interior featuring tasteful décor, abundant natural light, and modern amenities throughout. The open-concept main living area is perfect for gatherings, complete with a cozy fireplace and ample seating to enjoy the panoramic views. The gourmet kitchen comes fully equipped and is the perfect setting for preparing meals and enjoying quality time with family and friends while watching the snow fall. Outdoor living is equally impressive, multiple spacious view decks create ideal spaces for barbecues, al fresco dining, or simply soaking in the sunshine and crisp mountain air. The fenced backyard includes a full-size bocce ball court and a relaxing eight-person spa, offering endless opportunities for entertainment and unwinding. With its breathtaking vistas, turnkey convenience, and prime location for both recreation and relaxation, this is a truly one-of-a-kind property that must be seen to be fully appreciated. Don’t miss the chance to make this extraordinary lake-view lodge your mountain dream home.

17. 2025-06-24
    historical
18. 2025-06-23
    listed $918,000 Active
19. 2023-06-01
    soldstatus $899,000 Closed Sale
20. 2023-05-31
    soldstatus $890,000 Closed
21. 2023-05-31
    soldstatus $890,000
22. 2023-03-29
    status Pending Sale
23. 2023-03-29
    historical Active Under Contract
24. 2023-03-20
    listed $899,000 Active
25. 2023-03-10
    listed $899,000 Active
26. 2021-06-11
    soldstatus $635,000 Closed Sale
27. 2021-06-11
    soldstatus $635,000
28. 2021-06-11
    soldstatus $635,000
29. 2021-06-10
    status Pending Sale
30. 2021-06-10
    soldstatus $635,000
31. 2021-05-11
    historical Active Under Contract
32. 2021-03-31
    listed $649,900 Active
33. 2021-03-31
    listed $649,900
34. 2021-03-21
    listed $649,900
35. 2004-07-02
    soldstatus $385,000
36. 2004-06-18
    soldstatus $385,000
37. 2004-04-30
    soldstatus $385,000
38. 2004-02-29
    listed $399,900
39. 2001-03-20
    soldstatus $265,000
40. 1993-04-19
    soldstatus $178,000
41. 1990-08-07
    soldstatus $205,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,524 · $794/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,524 · $794/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone D · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 9 d/yr ≥83°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $71,553
• − Mortgage interest: −$52,543
• − Property taxes: −$9,524
• − Insurance: −$7,066
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,724
• − Management: −$5,724
• − Depreciation: −$27,287
• Taxable loss: −$36,316
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,716
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,375/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bear Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604230
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,222
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6588
• State rank: #289 of 517 in CA

Livability — Big Bear Lake

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #14284

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C- Employment C Housing C- Health & safety D+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,215
• Population (ZIP): 403

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 18% Italian 6% Scottish 6%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.30%
• Current HPI: 318.6629
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+357.6% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $938,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-07 Listed $958,000 CRMLS
• 2025-06-24 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-06-23 Listed $918,000 CRMLS
• 2023-06-01 Sold (MLS) $899,000 CRMLS
• 2023-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $890,000 Public Records
• 2023-05-31 Sold (MLS) $890,000 MRCAOR
• 2023-03-29 Pending — CRMLS
• 2023-03-29 Contingent — MRCAOR
• 2023-03-20 Listed $899,000 CRMLS
• 2023-03-10 Listed $899,000 MRCAOR
• 2021-06-11 Sold (MLS) $635,000 MRCAOR
• 2021-06-11 Sold (MLS) $635,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2021-06-11 Sold (MLS) $635,000 CRMLS
• 2021-06-10 Pending — CRMLS
• 2021-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $635,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-11 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2021-03-31 Listed $649,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2021-03-31 Listed $649,900 CRMLS
• 2021-03-21 Listed $649,900 MRCAOR
• 2004-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $385,000 Public Records
• 2004-06-18 Sold (MLS) $385,000 CRMLS
• 2004-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $385,000 Public Records
• 2004-02-29 Listed $399,900 CRMLS
• 2001-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records
• 1993-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $178,000 Public Records
• 1990-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,524 · -2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.