4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,687 sqft ·
Built 1961
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 35 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,949/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$994
Tax + insurance
−$316
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$409
Net cashflow
$230/mo
Annual
$2,766/yr
Cap rate
7.75%
Cash-on-cash
5.21%
DSCR
1.23
1% rule
1.03%
Cash to close
$53,060
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $184k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#82 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Halls Ferry Elementary (math 7% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,003 of 1,115 statewide, top 90%, 346 students, 99% FRL); Mccluer High (math 0% / reading 17%, grade F, #511 of 521 statewide, top 98%, 1,181 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 70% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 6.3% in Florissant — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-P2MZMJ54YERC82
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29