1244 Garry Ave

Vineland, NJ 08361

$245,000B-

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · Built 1955 · MultiFamily · Active · 170 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,704/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$490
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$778
• Net cashflow: $1,151/mo
• Annual: $13,812/yr
• Cap rate: 11.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.13%
• DSCR: 1.90
• 1% rule: 1.51%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive. Per door: $576/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $245k).
• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#363 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, crime F.
• Vineland Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #418 of 472 in NJ (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 216 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cumberland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $245k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 4.5% in Vineland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?