3801 Mary Ann Lane Ln

Hamilton Branch, CA 96137

$247,000C

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,205 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,111/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,295
• Tax + insurance: −$246
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $127/mo
• Annual: $1,518/yr
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.20%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $69,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $247k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (14.5% below list).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $211k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,156 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Plumas Unified (rural): math 21% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #306 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Plumas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Plumas County population projected at -42% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.