3801 Mary Ann Lane Ln · Hamilton Branch, CA 96137

$247,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,205 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1978 10,454 sqft lot $205/sqft · 37% below area Est $391k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Three-bedroom, two-bath home located just blocks from Lake Almanor on a desirable corner lot. Features include central heat, dedicated wood storage, and an open deck perfect for entertaining. This property offers great renovation potential—an excellent opportunity to create your ideal mountain getaway or investment property.

Key facts

• Central heat
• Open deck
• Wood storage

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• CENTRAL HEAT
• WOOD STORAGE
• OPEN DECK
• RENOVATION POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete parking; Off-street parking; On-street parking
• Utilities: Electricity available; Propane available; Water available; Sewer available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level / 1 story; Completed development
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Composition roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built as a single-family residence
• Exterior features: Private yard; Deck; Porch; Shed(s); Wood, partial fencing (fenced); Level, landscaped, wooded corner lot; Paved road access; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Propane heating; Wall furnace; No cooling
• Interior features: Double-pane windows; Masonry fireplace; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer (present)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $247k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,156 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Plumas Unified (rural): math 21% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #306 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Plumas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Plumas County population projected at -42% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,126 (14.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.20%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $391,045
• List price: $247,000
• Delta: -36.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3209 Woodlake Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+1%)	5mo	$335,000	$275	83
3567 Park Hill Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,245 (+3%)	9mo	$350,000	$281	74
3550 Woodlake Drive Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	21mo	$350,000	$260	51
3869 Mary Ann Lane Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,384 (+15%)	22mo	$314,000	$227	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $17,198
• Equity at exit: $89,205

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $77,195
• Equity at exit: $122,417

Cash invested: $69,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96137

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,111 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,295
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,718/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,951

Max offer price $247,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $266	-5% $196	+0% $127	+5% $57	+10% $-13
Rent	-10% $-40	-5% $43	+0% $127	+5% $210	+10% $293
Rate	-1.0pp $251	-0.5pp $189	base $127	+0.5pp $63	+1.0pp $-3

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,750
• Closing costs: $7,410
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $247,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $247,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $247,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $247,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $247,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $247,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $247,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $247,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $247,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $247,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $247,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $247,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $247,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $247,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $247,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $247,000 Active 29 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $247,000 Active 28 DOM
18. 2026-04-29
    listed $247,000 Active 332-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,718 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,877 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$159/yr (+$13/mo · 9.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥86°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,335
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,836
• − Property taxes: −$1,718
• − Insurance: −$1,235
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,027
• − Management: −$2,027
• − Depreciation: −$7,185
• Taxable loss: −$2,693
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$646
• After-tax cash flow: $2,165/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Plumas Unified
• NCES district ID: 0631170
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,935
• Composite: 27.89/100
• National rank: #6870
• State rank: #306 of 517 in CA

Livability — Hamilton Branch

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1156
• US rank: #25828

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hamilton Branch, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,717

Population outlook (Plumas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,564 people
• By 2030: 14,014 · -10.0%
• By 2040: 11,197 · -28.1%
• By 2050: 9,069 · -41.7%
• By 2075: 5,573 · -64.2%
• By 2100: 3,392 · -78.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Plumas

• 2024 margin: R (+16.9) · D 39.9% · R 56.9% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -12.0pp · 2024: -16.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.9 2020: R+16.7 2016: R+21.0 2012: R+17.2 2008: R+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.38%
• Current HPI: 153.1005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $247,000 PAR

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,718 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.